تداعيات سد النهضة المحتملة على إنتاج الأسماك فى مصر ووسائل التخفيف من اثارها

Implication of the Renaissance DAM on Fish Production in Egypt and Ways to Mitigate its Effects

تعتبر مصر من الدول التى تواجه نحديا كبيرا أمام مواردها المائية المحدودة خلال السنوات المقبل، ويتسم الموقف المائى المصري بالهشاشة الشديدة ، وذلك في ضوء محدودية الموارد المائية المتاحة، حيث لا تتجاوز كمية المياة العذبة المتاحة 60 مليار متر مكعب سنوياً، وفي ظل ما تشهده موارد مصر المائية من تحديات وتوقعات بانخفاض المتاح منها فى الفترة القادمة بسبب مشروع سد النهضة الاثيوبي، مما يستوجب العمل من جانب علي زيادة المعروض من المصادر الأخرى من المياة

The Nile River is the most important freshwater resource for Egypt, representing 85% of the total water resources in the country. Most of this water falls on the Ethiopian highlands. Due to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project there are expectations of a decrease in Egypt’s water resources in the coming years. According to the Ethiopian scheme, the impact of the dam on the downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) is the decrease in water availability and increase water salinity. Furthermore, in the case of a decrease in the freshwater level or an increase in the sea level in coastal areas on the Mediterranean, it will lead to an increase in the salinity of the fish farms in the Nile Delta where, most of fish farms are located. This will lead to serious changes in the composition of fish production. The potential implications of the Renaissance Dam on fish production are the changes in the quantity and quality of water in water bodies and streams, as well as fish farms. It is expected that there will be a changes in the fish map in Egypt. Some fish species will disappear due to the shortage of water or due to the high salinity. Accordingly, it is expected that the fish production capacity in Lake Nasser, the Nile River and its branches and other water bodies, as well as fish farms will decrease. About 12 of fish species that are endemic to the Nile River, lakes Nasser and fish farms in addition to freshwater lobsters- that have been endemic to the Nile River in recent years-, are exposed to either severe shortage or eventual disappearance from these fish production resources. The total production of these species is estimated at about 1.5 million tons, representing about 75% of the total national fish production, with an estimated value of more than 28 billion pounds according to 2018 prices. The most serious consequences fall on the production of tilapia, which is the first fish in Egypt and one of the most important fish produced and most acceptable to most consumers in Egypt. It contributes more than 60% of the total Egyptian fish production, at an estimated value of 21.8 billion L.E according 2018 prices. Reducing or stopping freshwater fish production from various sources has serious economic and social implications. These include the exit of large investments and labor forces from the sector, as well as implications of increasing prices and dependence on imports, fish food insecurity, and the negative impacts on supporting sectors (feed and ice plants, packaging, transportation, marketing services, etc.). he fisheries in Lake Nasser are the most affected by the repercussions of the Renaissance Dam. The production in 2019 estimated at about 25,000 tons, of a value of 500 million Egyptian pounds. The total investments in fishing activities and support services are estimated at more than 722 million Egyptian pounds, and job opportunities estimated at about 30,000 jobs.

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