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324918

An Analytical Study to Predict the Prices of Some Strategic Crops in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

Subjects

-

Tags

Economic and socio agricultural

Abstract

Grain crops are one of the most important strategic food crops in the world and Egypt, where the study's problem was due to economic changes in the Egyptian agricultural sector, which made crop cultivation optional, left prices free to respond to supply and demand forces, and gave farmers full freedom to cultivate, market, and buy crops. The research used descriptive and quantitative analysis of statistical data and published and unpublished data from many sources. Production adequacy and import coverage for domestic consumption are important indicators of economic and strategic dimension.
After analyzing the time series of the average prices of monthly wheat contracts on the London Stock Exchange for futures contracts from October 2019 to September 2023, the global price of wheat can be predicted for the following 12 months, from October 2023 to September 2024, as it was found that the global price of wheat began to rise in October 2023.
By analyzing the time series of the average maize crop prices on the global stock exchange over 36 months, crop prices could be predicted for the next 12 months. The global prices are expected to rise from April to September 2023, then decline in October, November, and December 2023 before rising again in January and February 2024.

DOI

10.21608/nvjas.2023.244318.1261

Keywords

Global Price Forecasting, strategic commodities, food security indicators, Economic indicators

Authors

First Name

Ghada

Last Name

ELdamrawi

MiddleName

Ali

Affiliation

Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Agricultural Research Center

Email

ghadaali@agr.asu.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

0009-0006-3928-2748

First Name

Monera

Last Name

Elnaggar

MiddleName

Galal

Affiliation

Agricultural Economics Research Institute ,Agricultural Research Center

Email

mony.galal@hotmail.com

City

cairo

Orcid

0009-0009-2927-5247

Volume

3

Article Issue

10

Related Issue

43853

Issue Date

2023-10-01

Receive Date

2023-10-23

Publish Date

2023-11-06

Page Start

253

Page End

270

Print ISSN

2805-2420

Online ISSN

2805-2439

Link

https://nvjas.journals.ekb.eg/article_324918.html

Detail API

https://nvjas.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=324918

Order

324,918

Type

Original Research

Type Code

2,101

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

New Valley Journal of Agricultural Science

Publication Link

https://nvjas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

An Analytical Study to Predict the Prices of Some Strategic Crops in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024