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333279

PREDICTING FOOD SECURITY FROM RED MEAT IN EGYPT USING ARIMA MODELS

Article

Last updated: 25 Dec 2024

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural Economics and Rural Development

Abstract

The research aims to predict red meat production in Egypt during (2022-2030) using ARIMA studying gab indicators. The results showed that the real needs for red meat are increasing annually by a statistically significant amount of about 49.93 thousand ton, with an annual increase rate of about 2.37%. The size of the real gap decreases annually by a statistically significant amount of about 47.46 thousand ton, with an annual decrease rate of about 3.86%. The total surplus was estimated at 937 thousand ton, sufficient to cover consumption for 295 days. This surplus is directed to fill the deficit in meat consumption of 61 thousand ton, estimated at 19 days. The strategic stock of red meat reached about 876 thousand ton, sufficient to cover local consumption for about 276 days. By studying prediction of the real gap for red meat until the year 2030, it was found that the time series stabilized after taking the initial differences at the 0.05 level, and the best model was chosen, which is (0,1,3), through which it was shown that the correlation coefficients fall within the confidence limits. The real gap indicators for red meat in production and consumption during the predicted period (2022-2030) increased significantly, as production reaches its maximum in 2030, amounting to about 2.1 million ton, and consumption also increases to reach about 3.8 million ton, and the real gap was predicted. Self-sufficiency and thus the gap in red meat increases to about 1.6 million ton, and self-sufficiency decreases to about 56.6%.

DOI

10.21608/sinjas.2023.243276.1239

Keywords

red meat, Food Gap, self-sufficiency, Autoregression, ARIMA

Authors

First Name

Rana

Last Name

Selmy

MiddleName

E.

Affiliation

Dept. Econ. and Rural Dev., Fac. Environ. Agric. Sci., Arish Univ., Egypt.

Email

rselmy@aru.edu.eg

City

North Sinai

Orcid

-

First Name

Fatma

Last Name

AbdElSalam

MiddleName

G.

Affiliation

Dept. Agric. Econ., Fac. Agric., Zagazig Univ., Egypt.

Email

fatma.gamal87@yahoo.com

City

ElSharkia

Orcid

-

Volume

12

Article Issue

5

Related Issue

44659

Issue Date

2023-10-01

Receive Date

2023-10-17

Publish Date

2023-12-31

Page Start

873

Page End

888

Print ISSN

2314-6079

Online ISSN

2682-3527

Link

https://sinjas.journals.ekb.eg/article_333279.html

Detail API

https://sinjas.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=333279

Order

9

Type

Researches

Type Code

2,342

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Sinai Journal of Applied Sciences

Publication Link

https://sinjas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

PREDICTING FOOD SECURITY FROM RED MEAT IN EGYPT USING ARIMA MODELS

Details

Type

Article

Created At

25 Dec 2024