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200313

Using Fuzzy Logic to Obtain PERT Three-Time Estimates in Oil and Gas Projects

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Last updated: 23 Jan 2023

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Abstract

A lot of projects especially in Oil and Gas sector are out of schedule. Main problem is wrongly calculated activity durations,
because Oil and Gas projects are very large and have many activities. In most cases experienced person, who may not be expert in
statistics or in its area at all, chooses durations of project activities. Moreover experience and knowledge of person is always limited
and his/her opinion is subjective. We propose method of survey for experts in a field of project's area, especially Oil and Gas sector.
During the survey experts will be asked to answer questions about activity durations in intervals, not in exact numbers. Survey uses
linguistic variables as answers and calculates fuzzy numbers from them. Further defuzzified activity durations will serve as input for
simulation.

DOI

10.21608/aeta.2016.200313

Keywords

fuzzy logic and sets, Project Management, CPM, pert three-time estimate, expert

Authors

First Name

Yerkezhan

Last Name

Shakenova

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Kazakh - British Technical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan

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Orcid

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Volume

5

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

28254

Issue Date

2016-05-01

Receive Date

2021-10-19

Publish Date

2016-05-01

Page Start

5

Page End

10

Print ISSN

2090-9535

Online ISSN

2090-9543

Link

https://aeta.journals.ekb.eg/article_200313.html

Detail API

https://aeta.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=200313

Order

200,313

Type

Original Article

Type Code

2,017

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Advanced Engineering Technology and Application

Publication Link

https://aeta.journals.ekb.eg/

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Article

Created At

23 Jan 2023