The objective of this research is to select of a statistical model which gives the best and most accurate monthly production and consumption of electric power in Iraq for the period from January 2007 estimates to December 2013 in the domestic sector through comparison between Bayes and kernel method to estimate Allamwalima decline. The importance of this research return to the importance of electrical energy and the attention of State and Government in this vital energy to the mind of the main sources of energy upon which the various aspects of life.
The according to the data used to show that the best models were estimated using the bayes model, and that the most important variables that significantly affect the amount consumed in the domestic sector are the number of subscribers and the relative humidity, in the industry sector is the number of subscribers only.