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190129

Long Memory versus Structural Changes in the Dynamics of Europe Brent-Oil Prices

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Last updated: 03 Jan 2025

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine the potential of long memory and structural breaks properties in the Brent returns and the Brent volatility series. We analyze the series over the period 20/05/1987-22/01/2016, using long memory tests, we demonstrate strong evidence of long-range dependence in the daily return and volatility of oil prices. From structural breaks tests, we find two structural breaks that appear in 1991 and 2008 which coincides, respectively, with the Gulf war and the global financial crisis. We use the Perron and Qu (2010) test in order to discriminate the long memory from the spurious long memory in presence of structural break, the results show strong evidence in favor of long memory. Long memory plays a crucial role in describing the oil price dynamics and we can also confirm that despite the persistence of shocks, the evolution of series is predetermined by a long memory process.

DOI

10.21608/aja.2021.190129

Keywords

volatility, Fractional Integration, Long Memory Process, Spurious Long Memory, Structural Breakss

Authors

First Name

Rim Ammar

Last Name

Lamouchi

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics & Administration, King Abdulaziz University, Saudi Arabia, Ministry of Education, Tunisia, GEF-2A Laboratory, Higher Instit. of Management Tunis University, Tunisia

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First Name

Suha Mahmoud

Last Name

Alawi

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Finance, Faculty of Economics and Administration, King Abdulaziz University, Saudi Arabia

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Volume

41

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

26825

Issue Date

2021-09-01

Receive Date

2021-09-01

Publish Date

2021-09-01

Page Start

415

Page End

424

Print ISSN

1110-5453

Online ISSN

2663-4473

Link

https://aja.journals.ekb.eg/article_190129.html

Detail API

https://aja.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=190129

Order

21

Type

بحوث باللغة الإنجلیزیة

Type Code

707

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة العربية للإدارة

Publication Link

https://aja.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Long Memory versus Structural Changes in the Dynamics of Europe Brent-Oil Prices

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Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023