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14333

FORECASTING WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION IN THE DESERT GOVERNORATES

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Last updated: 03 Jan 2025

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Abstract

Wheat is considered one of the main grain crop that human is depend in his diet all over the world. It is a strategic crop globally and locally in Egypt. The problem of the research refers to the gap between local wheat production and consumption. This gap forced the country to import wheat and thus represent a burden on the Egyptian balance of trade. It is the objective of the present paper is therefore to investigate ways to alleviate the deficit of wheat production and gap. The study assess wheat area, production and productivity during the period 1995-2013 particularly in the desert governorates.


The study estimates wheat gap during the above period by about 67.14 million ton. Safe efficiency is therefore was put as 54.1%. Losses of wheat were put as about 1017 about 14.2% in the country as a whole.  The study estimates that wheat production in Matrooh and New Valley governorate is
expected to be about 173.56 and 277.8 thousand ton respectively.
The study suggests that measures should be taken to decrease losses of wheat during harvesting and marketing. New storage facilities should be established. The study recommends that special concern should be given to wheat cultivation in desert governorate by encouraging former to grow wheat by covering good wheat price to encourage formers

DOI

10.21608/ajs.2016.14333

Keywords

Forcast, Wheat, ARIMA, Variance

Authors

First Name

Hanan

Last Name

Ghaly

MiddleName

W.

Affiliation

Economic and Social Studies Division, Department of Economic Studies, Desert Research Center, Cairo, Egypt

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Volume

24

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

2785

Issue Date

2016-09-01

Receive Date

2016-07-20

Publish Date

2016-09-01

Page Start

387

Page End

398

Print ISSN

1110-2675

Online ISSN

2636-3585

Link

https://ajs.journals.ekb.eg/article_14333.html

Detail API

https://ajs.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=14333

Order

9

Type

Original Article

Type Code

668

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Arab Universities Journal of Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://ajs.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

FORECASTING WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION IN THE DESERT GOVERNORATES

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023