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255308

Climate change impacts on determinants of food security for the most important vegetable oils in the light of the local and global variables

Article

Last updated: 03 Jan 2025

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Abstract

Climate change is predicted to adversely affect agricultural production, particularly in development countries such as Egypt, where crop production relies heavily on environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature. However, there have only been a limited number of studies on the effects of climate change dynamics on food security in Egypt, particularly at the household level. We therefore analyzed local and global production of study crops, food security determinants and the adaptation strategies to face the climate. Data were analyzed using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT); Simulating the impact of climate change on food production, The results show that climate change will reduce aggregate food production between -3% (2030) -3.8% (2050). Furthermore, it will lead to a reduce in the total production of oil crops, as the total production of soybean will reduce from about by -6.7%, -13.25% and about -2.63%, -6.00% for sunflower by 2030 and 2050.
On the other hand, it was found that the total production of the most important producing countries, such as Argentina, Ukraine, America, and Russia, except for Uruguay, will rise by about 3.64%, 6.60% by 2030 and 2050. While the total production of sunflower- for producing countries has also reduced, except for Russia, where it is expected to increase its total production by about 2.66%, 5.15% by 2030 and 2050. Finally, the study recommended that Egypt, need to develop measures to adapt to climate changes through providing climate-smart crop, improving practices Agricultural.

DOI

10.21608/jsas.2022.126042.1344

Keywords

Climate Change, Food security, agricultural productivity, Agricultural Production, Heat and Water Stress, simulations, IMPACT model

Authors

First Name

Mostafa

Last Name

Negm

MiddleName

Mohamed Elmahdy

Affiliation

Agricultural Economics department Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar university, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

negm.n2060@gmail.com

City

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Orcid

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First Name

Fatma

Last Name

Hefnawy

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Agricultural Economics department Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo university

Email

fffhefnawy@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

48

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

36245

Issue Date

2022-09-01

Receive Date

2022-03-07

Publish Date

2022-09-01

Page Start

323

Page End

334

Print ISSN

2536-9571

Online ISSN

2536-958X

Link

https://jsas.journals.ekb.eg/article_255308.html

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https://jsas.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=255308

Order

255,308

Type

Original Research Paper

Type Code

398

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://jsas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Climate change impacts on determinants of food security for the most important vegetable oils in the light of the local and global variables

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023