425453

Can increasing interest rates manage inflation in Egypt without triggering a recession? New insights from Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)

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Last updated: 04 May 2025

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Abstract

This study sought to determine whether raising interest rates can effectively address the inflation problem in Egypt without causing a recession. This was done using structural equation modeling (SEM) over the period (1991-2024) to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of monetary policy on inflation and economic growth. The results showed that a 1% increase in the interest rate on deposits at central banks leads to an increase in lending rates by 0.73%, liquidity by 16.4%, and asset prices by 11.7%, but reduces private sector credit by -0.98%. Higher lending rates significantly reduce inflation by -3.4%, supporting the Keynesian theory, while higher asset prices slightly boost inflation by 0.045%. Asset prices and private credit positively affect GDP growth. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power (R² = 0.983), which confirms the effectiveness of raising interest rates in curbing inflation but highlights the need to set criteria to avoid deflation. Excessive credit, this study attempts to clarify a vision for achieving a balance between controlling inflation and growth through targeted monetary measures.

DOI

10.21608/csj.2025.375939.1610

Keywords

interest rates, Inflation, Monetary policy

Authors

First Name

نشوى محمد

Last Name

عبد ربه

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

کلية التجارة جامعة طنطا مصر

Email

abdrabownashwa@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

0000-0002-6053-7884

First Name

هانى محمد

Last Name

الدمرداش

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Professor of Economics in Department of Economics and Public Finance, Faculty of Commerce, Tanta University

Email

hany.eldemerdash@commerce.tanta.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

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First Name

مها محمد عادل عبدالعزيز

Last Name

عبيد

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Lecturer of Management in Department of Management, Faculty of Commerce, Tanta University

Email

maha.ebeid@commerce.tanta.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

11

Article Issue

20

Related Issue

54778

Issue Date

2025-04-01

Receive Date

2025-04-15

Publish Date

2025-04-01

Page Start

806

Page End

834

Print ISSN

2356-9255

Online ISSN

2356-9263

Link

https://csj.journals.ekb.eg/article_425453.html

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http://journals.ekb.eg?_action=service&article_code=425453

Order

425,453

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,297

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

مجلة الدراسات التجارية المعاصرة

Publication Link

https://csj.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Can increasing interest rates manage inflation in Egypt without triggering a recession? New insights from Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)

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Article

Created At

04 May 2025