The International Financial Reporting Standards for insurance contracts (IFRS 17) established principles for the recognition, measurement, presentation, and disclosure of insurance contracts. A critical component of IFRS 17 is the non-financial risk adjustment (RA). Although the risk adjustment must meet certain criteria, the specific estimation method is left to the discretion of the insurer. This study aims to apply risk measures (quintiles) techniques for estimating the risk adjustment.
This research incorporates bootstrap simulation techniques based on Mack's (1993) model to evaluate lifetime reserve risk for (Marine Cargo, Inland, Marine Hull, and Fire) of an Egyptian non-life insurer through the duration of 2017-2022. Furthermore, the study estimates the risk adjustment using percentile-based risk measures (Value at Risk, Tail Value at Risk, and Proportional Hazard Transform) derived from simulated predictive distributions. Additionally, the correlation between the lines of business is considered, as required for IFRS 17 risk adjustment estimation.
The findings of this research contribute to the existing literature by providing a comparative analysis of risk adjustment methodologies under different risk measure techniques. Additionally, the risk adjustment can be reduced according to the diversification benefit that considers the dependence between different lines of business.