417930

The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements on Egyptian Trade Flows: A Gravity Modelling Approach

Article

Last updated: 29 Mar 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural Economics

Abstract

Egypt is interested in joining many trade agreements, whether bilateral or multilateral, with the aim of stimulating foreign trade. The study therefore seeks to investigate the impact of Egypt's accession to the main regional trade agreements on Egyptian foreign trade flows, using the gravity model of international trade. To achieve the research objective, the study adopted the approach of panel data (58 states) from 2000 to 2021. In this context, the results indicate that the combined GDP of the trading partners has a positive and statistically significant impact on Egyptian trade flows, as well as the combined population size and the inverse square of the distance between countries. Although common language could be a facilitating factor in international trade, its importance might diminish under certain circumstances. Similarly, although common borders were beneficial to trade, there are circumstances in which they might have a negative impact on trade relationships. Regarding the impact of Egypt's accession to regional trade agreements, the results indicated the positive impact of Egypt's agreement with the European Union, and the GAFTA agreement on Egyptian exports, imports, and foreign trade, COMESA agreement has a positive impact on exports and foreign trade but it has a negative impact on imports, while accession to the Agadir agreement had a positive impact on Egyptian total trade. On the other hand, the results indicated the negative impact of accession to the QIZ agreement on all Egyptian trade flows, and the EFTA
agreement had a negative impact on Egypt's exports and total trade, there was an insignificant impact of the MERCOSUR
Agreement on all trade flows. Accordingly, the study recommends the need for a comprehensive assessment of the terms of trade agreements in the light of trade dynamics, as well as the focus on strategic planning and capacitybuilding initiatives to minimize the negative impact of some agreements and maximize the long-term benefits of others, and
working on reforming trade policies and measures and market diversification strategies, and exploiting the opportunities
provided by GAFTA in supporting economic growth and stability.

DOI

10.21608/sjas.2024.324594.1463

Keywords

Trade agreements, GDP, gravity model, Panel Data, and Egyptian Economy

Authors

First Name

Asmaa

Last Name

Hussein

MiddleName

Salah

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University

Email

dr.asmaasalah@gmail.com

City

Giza

Orcid

-

First Name

Sahra

Last Name

Atta

MiddleName

Khaleel

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University

Email

sahra.atta2015@gmail.com

City

Giza

Orcid

-

First Name

Mohamed

Last Name

Mashal

MiddleName

Salem Mustafa

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University

Email

mashaal1511@hotmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

victor

Last Name

shaker

MiddleName

Faris Aiad

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University

Email

victor.shaker@agr.cu.edu.eg

City

Giza

Orcid

-

Volume

6

Article Issue

4

Related Issue

52649

Issue Date

2024-12-01

Receive Date

2024-09-29

Publish Date

2024-12-01

Page Start

226

Page End

240

Print ISSN

2535-1796

Online ISSN

2535-180X

Link

https://sjas.journals.ekb.eg/article_417930.html

Detail API

http://journals.ekb.eg?_action=service&article_code=417930

Order

417,930

Type

Original Article

Type Code

916

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Scientific Journal of Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://sjas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements on Egyptian Trade Flows: A Gravity Modelling Approach

Details

Type

Article

Created At

29 Mar 2025