395367

Simultaneous Econometric Model for The Determinants of Wheat Production and Consumption in Egypt "نموذج قياسي آني لمحددات إنتاج واستهلاك القمح في مصر"

Article

Last updated: 09 Mar 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural Economic and Social Sciences

Abstract

The research problem was represented in the continuous increase in the Egyptian wheat import bill due to the inability of production to cover consumption, although many studies of wheat crops focus on one aspect rather than the other, for example, a study of wheat production in isolation from consumption, foreign trade, manufacturing and vice versa, and this matter negatively affects the determination of production and consumption policies. Therefore, the research mainly aimed to limit the increasing wheat imports and to establish a mechanism for drawing up a policy for decision-makers that contributes to bridging the deficit in the trade balance and the balance of payments. This is done by studying the development of economic production phenomena affecting wheat production and consumption in Egypt, and trying to build a real-time standard economic model to identify the most important determinants of wheat production and consumption in Egypt during the period (2001-2022), in addition to trying to predict wheat production, consumption and imports until 2030. According to the research objective and the nature of the available data, the simultaneous equations model was used, which was estimated using the three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. The research relied on published secondary statistical data such as: foreign trade bulletins issued by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, annual agricultural statistics bulletins issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) database, the World Trade Organization TREADMAP, in addition to references and scientific research related to the research topic.

DOI

10.21608/alexja.2024.336862.1107

Keywords

Simultaneous equations, Wheat Consumption, Wheat production, Egyptian Wheat Imports

Authors

First Name

Amira Ismail

Last Name

Elmisalamy

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

miraelmisalamy7@gmail.com

City

Cairo

Orcid

0000-0001-8979-553X

First Name

Abdullah

Last Name

Abdelmaqsoud

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

amaahmed2002@gmail.com

City

Cairo

Orcid

0000-0002-1121-0500

First Name

Basma

Last Name

Mohamed

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

basmamostafa@agr.asu.edu.eg

City

Cairo

Orcid

-

Volume

70

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

54175

Issue Date

2025-03-01

Receive Date

2024-11-16

Publish Date

2025-03-01

Page Start

27

Page End

34

Online ISSN

2535-1931

Link

https://alexja.journals.ekb.eg/article_395367.html

Detail API

http://journals.ekb.eg?_action=service&article_code=395367

Order

3

Type

Original Article

Type Code

514

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Alexandria Journal of Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://alexja.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Simultaneous Econometric Model for The Determinants of Wheat Production and Consumption in Egypt "نموذج قياسي آني لمحددات إنتاج واستهلاك القمح في مصر"

Details

Type

Article

Created At

09 Mar 2025