413248

The Impact of Different Integration Methods on Using Hybrid Models in Forecasting Time Series

Article

Last updated: 09 Mar 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Time series

Abstract

This study evaluated the impact of different integration methods when using hybrid models for time series forecasting, employing monthly global oil price data from January 2004 to December 2023. The research included individual models of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) and a hybrid model (ARIMA-SVR) utilizing multiple integration techniques (additive, multiplicative, and regression). The results demonstrated the superiority of the additively integrated hybrid model, which achieved the lowest values for forecast accuracy metrics (MAE, MPE, MAPE, and MSE), significantly outperforming the other models. Specifically, this model showed a 46.4% improvement in MAE compared to the ARIMA model and a 29% improvement compared to the SVR model. The regression hybrid model followed in performance, followed by the multiplicatively integrated model, the SVR, and lastly, the ARIMA model. These findings highlight the effectiveness of hybrid models, particularly those with additive integration, in enhancing the forecasting accuracy of complex time series exhibiting both linear and nonlinear patterns. The study recommends exploring more sophisticated integration methods and expanding the scope of applications in future research.

DOI

10.21608/esju.2025.340330.1055

Keywords

Time Series Forecasting, hybrid model, ARIMA, SVR, Integration methods

Authors

First Name

Abdelreheem

Last Name

Bassuny

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of Commerce Tanta university Egypt

Email

dr-abdelreheembassuny@outlook.com

City

Kafr El-Sheikh Governorate.

Orcid

-

Volume

69

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

53982

Issue Date

2025-06-01

Receive Date

2024-11-29

Publish Date

2025-06-01

Page Start

49

Page End

72

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_413248.html

Detail API

http://journals.ekb.eg?_action=service&article_code=413248

Order

3

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

The Impact of Different Integration Methods on Using Hybrid Models in Forecasting Time Series

Details

Type

Article

Created At

25 Feb 2025