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309684

Data Extraction Method for Better Failure Time Prediction of Landslides

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

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Abstract

Time prediction methods based on monitoring surface displacement (SD) are effective for early warning against shallow landslides. However, failure time prediction by Fukuzono's original inverse-velocity (INV) method is less accurate due to variation in the inverse-velocity (1/v) caused by noise in the measured SD, which amplifies the fluctuation in the resultant 1/v. Therefore, the present study incorporates pre-analysis to acquire better prediction by reducing the effect of noise on the measured SD. The data extraction (DE) and moving average (MA) methods are used to filter the measured SD for better smoothing of 1/v. The reproducibility of the measured SD and the scattering are assessed using the root mean square error (RMSE) and determining factor (f), respectively, to select the optimum SD interval (∆x) for data extraction in the DE method. The data, treated by the DE and MA methods, are utilized to predict the failure time based on the INV method and the relationship between velocity and acceleration on a logarithmic scale (VAA) method. Accordingly, ∆x gives the smallest sum of the normalized RMSE and normalized (1-f), which offers a better prediction. When the SD at failure changes, ∆x is changed. The best prediction is obtained by DE preprocessing with the VAA method because it minimizes the effect of the individual 1/v by reducing the scatter in the relationship between velocity and acceleration. However, the time prediction using data processed by the MA method shows poor prediction due to some scattering of the inverse velocity.

DOI

10.21608/asge.2023.218446.1054

Keywords

Shallow landslide, Failure time prediction, Model slope, Monitoring surface displacement

Authors

First Name

Imaya

Last Name

Ariyarathna

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Life Environment Conservation Science, Ehime University, Japan

Email

danuimaya@yahoo.com

City

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Orcid

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First Name

Katsuo

Last Name

Sasahara

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Research and Education Faculty, Kochi University, Japan

Email

sasahara@kochi-u.ac.jp

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

07

Article Issue

01

Related Issue

42378

Issue Date

2023-02-01

Receive Date

2023-06-18

Publish Date

2023-02-01

Page Start

1

Page End

10

Print ISSN

2785-9509

Online ISSN

2812-5142

Link

https://asge.journals.ekb.eg/article_309684.html

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https://asge.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=309684

Order

309,684

Type

Original Article

Type Code

2,140

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

International Journal of Advances in Structural and Geotechnical Engineering

Publication Link

https://asge.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Data Extraction Method for Better Failure Time Prediction of Landslides

Details

Type

Article

Created At

30 Dec 2024