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An examination of the effect of exchange rate on food security: the case of Egypt

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

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Abstract

This paper addresses the effect of exchange rate on accessibility of sufficient nutritious food, or in other word, its effect on food security in Egypt without any moderator during the period (2000 –2022).
The research has used Dicky Fuller test of stationarity, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing framework, using the variables of exchange rate, per capita food supply variability, and some control variables, that shape the model like gross domestic product, inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate. The analysis reveals significant statistical effects of various factors on food security (PCFS) at the 5% significance level. Specifically, for every 1 unit increase in exchange rate (EXR), PCFS increases by 0.2603 units (p-value ≤ 0.05). Similarly, a 1 unit increase in inflation (INF) leads to a 0.0001 unit increase in PCFS (p-value ≤ 0.05). Conversely, an increase of 1 unit in interest rate (INT) results in a decrease of 0.001 units in PCFS (p-value ≤ 0.05), while a decrease of 1 unit in unemployment (UNEM) corresponds to a 0.364 unit decrease in PCFS (p-value ≤ 0.05). An increase of 1 unit in gross domestic product (GDP) contributes to a 0.273 unit increase in PCFS (p-value ≤ 0.05).The paper is important as it put the shades on the impact of changing foreign exchange rates, that has government attention, on the national security of Egypt represented by food security, and it also suggests some polices that solve this problem like the policies that encourage local agricultural growth, and so forth.

DOI

10.21608/jsst.2024.330370.1892

Keywords

Food Production, exchange rate, Food prices, Sustainable Development, Inflation Rate

Authors

First Name

رغدة

Last Name

سعيد

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

جامعة 6 أکتوبر

Email

raghdanadim@yahoo.com

City

القاهرة

Orcid

0000-0002-6891-9633

Volume

26

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

49795

Issue Date

2025-01-01

Receive Date

2024-10-22

Publish Date

2025-01-01

Page Start

544

Page End

565

Print ISSN

2090-5327

Online ISSN

2682-3543

Link

https://jsst.journals.ekb.eg/article_392030.html

Detail API

https://jsst.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=392030

Order

392,030

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,048

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

مجلة البحوث المالية والتجارية

Publication Link

https://jsst.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

An examination of the effect of exchange rate on food security: the case of Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

30 Dec 2024