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293170

Predicting the Monthly Average Price (LE/KG) For Egyptian Broiler Farms (2019–2022) Using Auto regressive Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA) Model

Article

Last updated: 03 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Animal Health, Nutrition and Food Control (Veterinary Public Health, Animal Wealth Development, Animal Nutrition, Zoonoses, Food Control)

Abstract

 Auto regressive Integrated-Moving-Average model (ARIMA) was employed to detect the monthly average price (LE/Kg) for broiler farms in Egypt during the period from September 2019 to December 2022. On the basis of the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion AIC value, the best suitable model was carefully chosen. It consists of Moving Average Process (MAP), the- Autoregressive Process (AR), and the Dif-021ferencing Process (d). Identification model, estimation parameter, check diagnostic, and fore-casting make up the four steps of the Box: Jenkins technique for time series analysis and modeling. For last four months of 2022, the best accurate model to forecast the monthly average price (LE/Kg) for Egyptian broiler farms is the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model. The % values were 25.25 LE/Kg (2.46) in September, 24.58 LE/Kg (4.33) in October, 24.61 LE/Kg (4.23) in November, and 25.32 LE/Kg (4.11) in December. The policy makers can consider the prices of feedstuffs and one-day-old chicks to maintain the food security margin by using the monthly average price (LE/Kg) for broiler farms in Egypt (2019–2022) that was estimated and anticipated using the ARIMA model using Univariate historical data.

DOI

10.21608/zvjz.2023.178561.1195

Keywords

: Monthly Average Price (LE/Kg), Broiler farms, (ARIMA), Egypt

Authors

First Name

Sara

Last Name

Shahin

MiddleName

E

Affiliation

Animal Wealth Development Department, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Zagazig University, 44511 Egypt

Email

saraesam2011@gmail.com

City

zagazig

Orcid

-

First Name

Magdy

Last Name

Roshdy

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Veterinarian at Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Zagazig University, 44511, Zagazig, Egypt

Email

magdyroshdy1964@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Mohamed

Last Name

Omar

MiddleName

A.E.

Affiliation

Animal Wealth Development Department, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Zagazig University, 44511 Egypt

Email

omarkafafy@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

51

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

40564

Issue Date

2023-03-01

Receive Date

2022-12-14

Publish Date

2023-03-01

Page Start

27

Page End

44

Print ISSN

1110-1458

Online ISSN

2357-075X

Link

https://zvjz.journals.ekb.eg/article_293170.html

Detail API

https://zvjz.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=293170

Order

293,170

Type

Original Article

Type Code

601

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Zagazig Veterinary Journal

Publication Link

https://zvjz.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Predicting the Monthly Average Price (LE/KG) For Egyptian Broiler Farms (2019–2022) Using Auto regressive Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA) Model

Details

Type

Article

Created At

30 Dec 2024