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396438

Predicting the Trends of the Egyptian Stock Market Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Methods

Article

Last updated: 29 Dec 2024

Subjects

-

Tags

Applied Statistics and Econometrics
Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

The prediction of stock price movements has remained a significant area of interest for researchers and investors, driven by the dynamic nature of financial markets and persistent economic fluctuations. The ability to forecast price trends enables investors to optimize their portfolios by identifying stocks likely to appreciate in value while avoiding those predicted to decline, thus maximizing returns and minimizing losses. This study focuses on forecasting the stock price movements of selected companies in the real estate sector listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange over the period 2013--2022. It employs a range of machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN), as well as deep learning architectures such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The study aims to evaluate and compare the performance of these methods in terms of predictive accuracy, with the ultimate goal of reducing the uncertainty associated with stock market forecasting. By applying these computational techniques, the research seeks to uncover patterns and insights within large datasets, providing actionable intelligence for investors and traders. The comparative analysis reveals that Adaptive Boosting achieves the highest accuracy among the machine learning algorithms, with a precision rate of 99.5%. Among deep learning models, LSTM exhibits superior predictive capability, yielding the lowest error rate, followed by RNN with an error rate of 0.3. These findings demonstrate the efficacy of advanced machine learning and deep learning models in stock price prediction, offering robust tools for enhancing decision-making processes in financial markets. The results highlight the potential of integrating data-driven methodologies to mitigate risks and improve investment outcomes. 

DOI

10.21608/cjmss.2024.320645.1077

Keywords

Stock market data analysis, Machine learning models, Deep learning models, Model assessment metrics, Prediction accuracy

Authors

First Name

Heba

Last Name

Elsegai

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Applied Statistics, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, Mansoura City 35516, Egypt

Email

dr.heba.elsegai@mans.edu.eg

City

Mansoura

Orcid

-

First Name

Hanem

Last Name

Al-Mutawaly

MiddleName

Salah

Affiliation

Department of Statistics and Mathematics, the Higher Institute of Administrative Sciences, El-Menzala, Dakahleya, Egypt

Email

hanemsalahsoker@gmail.com

City

egypt

Orcid

-

First Name

Hisham

Last Name

Almongy

MiddleName

M

Affiliation

Department of Applied Statistics and Insurance-Faculty of Commerce - Mansoura University, Dakahleya, Egypt

Email

elmongyh@mans.edu.eg

City

Mansoura

Orcid

0000-0002-6821-4406

Volume

4

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

50936

Issue Date

2025-04-01

Receive Date

2024-10-10

Publish Date

2025-04-01

Page Start

186

Page End

221

Print ISSN

2974-3435

Online ISSN

2974-3443

Link

https://cjmss.journals.ekb.eg/article_396438.html

Detail API

https://cjmss.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=396438

Order

396,438

Type

Original Article

Type Code

2,545

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Computational Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences

Publication Link

https://cjmss.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Predicting the Trends of the Egyptian Stock Market Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Methods

Details

Type

Article

Created At

29 Dec 2024