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351857

On the Exchangeability Property in Causal Models

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Applied Statistics and Econometrics

Abstract

Exchangeability is one of the most important concepts in Bayesian probability theory [7], as well as in causal analysis, particularly within the theory based on the potential outcomes (see [18, 21, 23, 15]). In this paper, we propose a way to make explicit the link between the two concepts. We show they are almost coincident with the exchangeability property introduced by de Finetti [3], without making use of notions such as partial, conditional, or hierarchical exchangeability. To do this, we will start from the exchangeability property described in Greenland et al. [14], and assuming the use of a recursive linear Gaussian structural equation model, we will show how it is possible to exploit the properties of de Finetti's representation theorem, without performing any computation, to obtain an estimate of the average causal effect by calibrating a simple linear regression. This is achieved by showing the role of a specific subset of the latent variables in the data-generating process for the variable Y|X=x, linking the exchangeability property required for the identification of the causal coefficient, with the non-correlation between regressors and error term in linear regression, needed to obtain an unbiased coefficient estimation. The results here proposed are not restricted to the Gaussian family of random variables distributions.

DOI

10.21608/cjmss.2024.251550.1030

Keywords

Exchangeability, Bayesian Analysis, causal analysis, Linear Regression

Authors

First Name

Vincenzo

Last Name

Adamo

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Italian Revenue Agency, 00147 Roma, Italy

Email

adamo.vincenzo@tiscali.it

City

-

Orcid

0000-0003-1482-0811

Volume

3

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

47327

Issue Date

2024-11-01

Receive Date

2023-11-27

Publish Date

2024-11-01

Page Start

228

Page End

239

Print ISSN

2974-3435

Online ISSN

2974-3443

Link

https://cjmss.journals.ekb.eg/article_351857.html

Detail API

https://cjmss.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=351857

Order

351,857

Type

Original Article

Type Code

2,545

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Computational Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences

Publication Link

https://cjmss.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

On the Exchangeability Property in Causal Models

Details

Type

Article

Created At

29 Dec 2024