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378162

The impact of Macroeconomic and Microeconomic variables on Credit Risk: A Comparative Study between Retail and Corporate Credit Risks in the banks of Egypt

Article

Last updated: 29 Dec 2024

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Tags

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Abstract

In 2018, corporate credit risk had notably increased in the Egyptian banking industry because its nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios had reversed the downward sloping curve shaping upward ones while the retail NPL ratio struggled the reverse, shaping a flat curve. In the present work, the paper aims to study the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors of corporate and retail credit risk to develop customized models that better predict the future value of the credit risk in the banks of Egypt to provide better insight to the credit officers and regulators to help in enhancing their credit decisions and regulations. The paper has utilized the Fixed-Random effects regression models for data analysis using panel data from 2013 to 2020. The findings showed that the macroeconomic and bank-specific variables affect the corporate and retail credit risks differently showing the importance of dividing the credit risk into categories to avoid generating misleading results and to create more robust and accurate predictive models of credit risk. The results also revealed that asset size, income diversification, loan-to-deposit ratio, interest rate, and external debt significantly affect corporate credit risk. In contrast, retail credit risk is affected only by macroeconomic variables such as external debt, GDP, interest rate, and foreign direct investment.

DOI

10.21608/msamsj.2024.283469.1062

Keywords

MACROECONOMIC, Microeconomic, Nonperforming loans, and credit risk

Authors

First Name

Karim

Last Name

Farag

MiddleName

Mohamed

Affiliation

Berlin School of Business and Innovation (BSBI)

Email

dr.karimfarag092@gmail.com

City

Berlin

Orcid

-

Volume

3

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

46270

Issue Date

2024-08-01

Receive Date

2024-04-17

Publish Date

2024-08-01

Page Start

116

Page End

128

Print ISSN

2974-3028

Online ISSN

2974-3036

Link

https://msamsj.journals.ekb.eg/article_378162.html

Detail API

https://msamsj.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=378162

Order

378,162

Type

Original Article

Type Code

2,535

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

MSA-Management Sciences Journal

Publication Link

https://msamsj.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

The impact of Macroeconomic and Microeconomic variables on Credit Risk: A Comparative Study between Retail and Corporate Credit Risks in the banks of Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

29 Dec 2024