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The impact of Ukraine-Russia war on stock market volatility in G7: An empirical analysis using EGARCH model.

Article

Last updated: 29 Dec 2024

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Abstract

The current study investigates how the recent war between Ukraine and Russia impacted the volatility of G7 economies of the stock markets in major industrialized countries like United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Canada, Japan, France, Germany, and Italy. The paper applies EGRACH model to detect the influence of the war on stock markets volatility. EGRACH estimations revealed that there is a direct impact of the information content of the war on the volatility of the majority of the countries under study. More specifically, four countries are negatively influenced by the war, Canada, France, Germany and UK. While three countries are not affected by the news which are Japan, USA and Italy. Granger causality reveals that there is a unidirectional relationship between war news and stock indices of three economies which are Germany, France and Italy. However, other indices did not show any unidirectional relationship (Japan, USA, UK and Canada). To find out if there is a long-term association between indices and the information content of the war, co-integration test was employed. The results showed the long-term association between the two variables.

DOI

10.21608/msamsj.2024.275897.1058

Keywords

Stock market indices, volatility, EGARCH model, Ukraine-Russia war, geopolitical risk

Authors

First Name

Sarah

Last Name

Hassan

MiddleName

Sobhy

Affiliation

Business Administration department, faculty of commerce Cairo University, Egypt . Department Of Finance, Faculty of Management Sciences October University for Modern Sciences and Arts (MSA), Egypt

Email

ssobhy@msa.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

0000-0002-8044-321X

Volume

3

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

46270

Issue Date

2024-08-01

Receive Date

2024-03-10

Publish Date

2024-08-01

Page Start

29

Page End

58

Print ISSN

2974-3028

Online ISSN

2974-3036

Link

https://msamsj.journals.ekb.eg/article_350009.html

Detail API

https://msamsj.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=350009

Order

350,009

Type

Original Article

Type Code

2,535

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

MSA-Management Sciences Journal

Publication Link

https://msamsj.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

The impact of Ukraine-Russia war on stock market volatility in G7: An empirical analysis using EGARCH model.

Details

Type

Article

Created At

29 Dec 2024