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337483

Estimating the Error Correction Model by Applying It to the Sectors of the Gross Domestic Product of the Republic Of Sudan (1960-2020s)

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

الاقتصاد والمالية العامة بفروعهما المختلفة

Abstract

The study aimed to treat time series data problems and find out the relationship between components of GDP and contribution of agricultural sector and other economic sectors in long run, through the desorption and estimation of economic model to reflect the dynamic relationship between them in short run with an estimation of equilibrium parameters in long run. The study also tried to examine the direction of causality and co-integration of time series data and the gross domestic of agro-industrial and service in dollars. The study depended basically on time series data from secondary source for the period (1960-2020).Granger causality test and Error Correction model were applied to analyze the data using a program of economic performances (E-Views). The results revealed that the decline in the contribution of agricultural sector by 10% lead to lower GDP by 8%. However, the decline in the contribution of the service and industrial sectors each by 10% lead to lower GDP by (25% and 62%), respectively. Results also confirmed that speed ​​error correction of GDP equation was statistically significant at 1%. Typically, 74% of imbalance of GDP in the long run has been corrected in year, while the error correction speed in the sectors that contributing to GDP (agriculture, industry and services) of imbalance was corrected by (19%, 2% and 1 %) respectively

DOI

10.21608/jcese.2024.254571.1048

Keywords

Time series data problems, GDP components, Agricultural sector, Causality and co-integration, Economic model estimation

Authors

First Name

Yousif

Last Name

jaffar

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

قسم الاقتصاد الزراعي، كلية الدراسات الزراعية، جامعة السودان للعلوم والتكنولوجيا، السودان

Email

yousifgafer976@gmail.com

City

Kassala - sudan

Orcid

-

First Name

Mohamed Elamin A.

Last Name

Allatif

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economic, College of Agricultural Studies, Sudan ,University of Science and Technology, Sudan

Email

a@gg.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Intisar Yousif

Last Name

Ahmed

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

قسم الاقتصاد الزراعي، كلية الدراسات الزراعية، جامعة السودان للعلوم والتكنولوجيا، السودان

Email

intisarsust@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

3

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

45033

Issue Date

2024-03-01

Receive Date

2023-12-10

Publish Date

2024-03-01

Page Start

94

Page End

111

Print ISSN

2974-3117

Online ISSN

2974-3125

Link

https://jcese.journals.ekb.eg/article_337483.html

Detail API

https://jcese.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=337483

Order

337,483

Type

المقالات الأصلية

Type Code

2,523

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

مجلة العلوم التجارية والبيئية

Publication Link

https://jcese.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Estimating the Error Correction Model by Applying It to the Sectors of the Gross Domestic Product of the Republic Of Sudan (1960-2020s)

Details

Type

Article

Created At

29 Dec 2024