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Enhancing the accuracy of future projections for Sea-Level Rise by utilizing the ensemble of Global Circulation Models in the Egyptian Red Sea coastal regions

Article

Last updated: 29 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Concerning global warming, sea level rise is one of the most critical problems. Therefore, it is necessary to find reliable projections for estimating coastal flooding to help manage coastlines effectively. So, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the rise in sea level poses a significant problem in many coastal areas; hence, studying flooding of low-lying lands along coasts has become a critical issue for countries such as Egypt, which is highly vulnerable to Sea-Level Rise (SLR), raising the temperature and reducing precipitation. Due to IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Sea levels will increase by 2100, 78 cm, and up to 100 cm by 2100. However, their magnitude remains indefinite. This study establishes limits on the level of uncertainty in sea-level rise variability. The uncertainty is derived from the analysis of future projections using (28) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) on an annual basis. This study focuses specifically on the coastal zones along the Egyptian Red Sea, from Suez to Hurghada. Based on AR5, four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were considered until 2100. It was found that there are ranges of possible rises in sea level concerning some models projecting very few centimeters while others go beyond a meter. Using optimal GCM ensembles reduces the uncertainty about predicted values on SLR. the results indicate that under each scenario, RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5, the sea level will increase by 60.5 cm, 71 cm, 77 cm, and 104 cm, respectively.

DOI

10.21608/erjsh.2024.289244.1313

Keywords

GCMS, RCPs, uncertainty, SLR, Red Sea

Authors

First Name

Rowida

Last Name

Abd El moniem

MiddleName

Elsayed

Affiliation

Enviromental and Climate Change Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

civilerms@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Gamal

Last Name

Elsaeed

MiddleName

Helmy

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra, Benha University, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

elsaeed@sadcoegypt.com

City

cairo

Orcid

-

First Name

Sherein

Last Name

Zahran

MiddleName

Ahmed

Affiliation

Enviromental and Climate Change Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Cairo, Egypt. El Obour High Institute of engineering and Technology

Email

shereinzahran@gmail.com

City

cairo

Orcid

0000-0003-0168-956x

First Name

Mohammed

Last Name

Ezzat

MiddleName

Bahgat

Affiliation

Hydrulic Research Institute, National Water Research Center, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

mohbahgat@gmail.com

City

caito

Orcid

-

First Name

Mohammed

Last Name

Hassan

MiddleName

Ahmed

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra, Benha University, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

mhassan1274@yahoo.com

City

cairo

Orcid

-

Volume

53

Article Issue

4

Related Issue

51476

Issue Date

2024-10-01

Receive Date

2024-05-23

Publish Date

2024-11-01

Page Start

26

Page End

35

Print ISSN

3009-6049

Online ISSN

3009-6022

Link

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/article_391768.html

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https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=391768

Order

391,768

Type

Research articles

Type Code

2,276

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Engineering Research Journal (Shoubra)

Publication Link

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Enhancing the accuracy of future projections for Sea-Level Rise by utilizing the ensemble of Global Circulation Models in the Egyptian Red Sea coastal regions

Details

Type

Article

Created At

29 Dec 2024