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Profitability Estimation Model of Egyptian Construction Projects Using Artificial Neural Network

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

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Tags

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Abstract

The profit ratio is important for any construction project. There is a high need to determine the profit ratio in the tendering stage. This paper investigates the factors affecting the determination of the profit ratio in the tendering stage for Egyptian construction projects. The effect of the characteristics of the project, contractor, owner, tender, and external condition on the profit ratio was studied to determine the significant factors affecting the determination of the profit ratio. A questionnaire was designed to determine the importance of 35 factors affecting the profit ratio decision and 267 responses were studied. The results indicated that most companies did not rely on any equations or analyses to determine the profit ratio for construction projects in Egypt. Employing the Relative Importance Index, the most important factors for profit ratio determination were economic stability, cash flow, degree of difficulty, size of the contract, and type of contract. The least important factors for profit ratio determination were delay penalties, safety rules, and the experience of the client. Pareto analysis was employed, and the 35 factors influencing the profit ratio were reduced to 12 significant factors. A second questionnaire was designed to identify the profit ratio for construction projects and responses were studied. An Artificial Neural Network model was developed to determine the profit ratio. Validation tests were conducted using six construction projects in Egypt. The absolute differences between actual and predicted profit ratios ranged between -0.0315% and 0.043%. This model will help to determine the profit ratio easily.

DOI

10.21608/erjsh.2023.227997.1199

Keywords

Profit, Markup, Margin size, Tendering, and Artificial Neural Network modeling

Authors

First Name

Alaa

Last Name

EL-HAZEK

MiddleName

Nabil

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra Benha University, Egypt.

Email

alaa_elhazek@yahoo.com

City

Cairo

Orcid

0000-0003-0911-4592

First Name

Sahar

Last Name

Ghareeb

MiddleName

Shahat

Affiliation

Construction and Project Management Research Institute, Housing and Building National Research Center (HBRC)

Email

eng_sahar5@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Amr

Last Name

Ibrahim

MiddleName

Mohamed

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra Benha University, Egypt.

Email

amr.aldahshan7@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

53

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

45043

Issue Date

2024-01-01

Receive Date

2023-08-08

Publish Date

2024-01-01

Page Start

142

Page End

149

Print ISSN

3009-6049

Online ISSN

3009-6022

Link

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/article_341614.html

Detail API

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=341614

Order

341,614

Type

Research articles

Type Code

2,276

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Engineering Research Journal (Shoubra)

Publication Link

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Profitability Estimation Model of Egyptian Construction Projects Using Artificial Neural Network

Details

Type

Article

Created At

29 Dec 2024