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299591

Developing a progressive model for managing project Contingency reserve

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Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

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Abstract

Project cost contingency has been studied in several scholarly communities interested in project management. Numerous references have discussed its methods of estimating and modelling in the preliminary planning phase of the project while concluding version zero of the project management plan. In such a phase, project potential risk is assessed quantitatively to calculate a monetary allowance to handle project risk effects in the event that they occur and become a real issue. However, for a project management environment, there are not enough familiar practices that discuss or present a comprehensive methodology to simply and robustly manage it throughout the project execution phase. Also, the responsive decisions that should be taken to deal with its status, whether it turns out to be adequately estimated or not, have not been discussed or studied enough before.This paper is aiming to present a simple and robust method to help project managers perform such a function, depending on the widely used earned value method (EVM) to measure performance throughout execution at selected points of accomplished control account. Depending on embedding an index that expresses the project risk within the performance measurement process The concept of risk performance index (RPI) as a reflection of the relationship between pre-assessed quantitative risk during the planning phase and real world risk that has become an issue is similar to the widely used concept of monitoring project performance by earned value, which takes into account cost performance index. The cost performance index (CPI) is a ratio of planned to actual costs, while the schedule performance index (SPI) is a ratio of two time-oriented values. This study will present a proposal for a risk performance index (RPI) to express the impact of project risk on project performance and to better manage project risk, which will be a ratio of two risks (preassessed during the project planning phase and actual occurring risks). The contingency budget management process was investigated. This was done via an integrated analysis of available standards provided by internationally recognized project management associations (PMI, IPMA, PMA, etc.) and the pertinent scholarly literature, in particular an analysis of literature on contingency management, which was developed based on the idea that it is a consistent and conducive methodology to deal with this topic. All past proposed models depend on original project cost estimation, expert judgment, or both for risk analysis. So the validity of these models depends on the accuracy of estimates and unbiased opinions from experts. Tremendous effort is required to collect pertinent and correct information for model inputs, and when the risk environment changes, the process must be restarted to obtain the correct information. 

DOI

10.21608/erjsh.2023.187391.1130

Keywords

Key Words: Contingency Reserve, Risk Performance Index, Overall Risk, Earned Value Analysis

Authors

First Name

Mohamed

Last Name

Khater

MiddleName

Ibrahem

Affiliation

Civil engineering department ,faculty of engineering at Shoubra . Benha University, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

pmpmohamedibrahem2903@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Shady

Last Name

Mohamed

MiddleName

ahmed

Affiliation

Civil engineering department ,faculty of engineering at Shoubra . Benha University, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

shady.ahmed@feng.bu.edu.eg

City

Cairo

Orcid

-

First Name

KARIM

Last Name

ELDASH

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Civil engineering department ,faculty of engineering at Shoubra . Benha University, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

karim.aldosh@feng.bu.edu.eg

City

CAIRO

Orcid

0000-0003-2742-0163

Volume

52

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

39838

Issue Date

2023-04-01

Receive Date

2023-01-16

Publish Date

2023-04-01

Page Start

186

Page End

193

Print ISSN

3009-6049

Online ISSN

3009-6022

Link

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/article_299591.html

Detail API

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=299591

Order

299,591

Type

Research articles

Type Code

2,276

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Engineering Research Journal (Shoubra)

Publication Link

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Developing a progressive model for managing project Contingency reserve

Details

Type

Article

Created At

29 Dec 2024