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292999

Using The Activity-Based Models to Study the Effect of Increasing Fuel Prices on the Individuals’ Daily Movement Patterns

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

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Abstract

The present study Provides a tool to overcome the problem of the lack of accurate models to study many policies affecting the transport system in Egypt, especially the policies of raising fuel prices and their impact on the daily movement patterns of individuals. It also aims to create a model to study the policies of raising fuel prices using activity-based transport demand models because they are the most accurate and realistic methods of modeling transport demand. Egyptian Obour City was chosen as the study area. A total of 934 representative samples of individuals within the study area were collected through questionnaires containing questions specific to the characteristics of households, characteristics of individuals and characteristics of daily tours of individuals. The SPSS program was used to build five models of movement patterns within the study area, where it was found that these models are the most widespread within the study area. The study showed that the cost of day tours has an impact on the individual's choice of daily 
patterns, as it turned out that a 1% increase in the price of gasoline leads to an average increase in the public transport 
fare by 0.123%, and this increase leads to a decrease in the odd ratio for Home-based work primary tours pattern by -
0.036%, for Home-based education primary tours pattern by -0.155%, and for Home-based education primary tour and 
secondary work tour pattern by -1.954%. It seems that this effect is small, but when applied to the census of the entire 
Egyptian society, the effect will be significant. The study also showed that car ownership is the most influential factor 
in individuals ' decisions in choosing their daily patterns.

DOI

10.21608/erjsh.2023.184870.1124

Keywords

activity-based models, Daily Movement Patterns, Binary logistic regression models, and odd ratio

Authors

First Name

Ibrahim

Last Name

Ramadan

MiddleName

mohamed

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra, Benha University

Email

i_ramadan@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

hesham

Last Name

omar

MiddleName

zenhom

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra, Benha University

Email

heshamomar587@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Ahmed El-Sayed

Last Name

Hassan

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Cairo University

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

heba

Last Name

bakry

MiddleName

mahmoud

Affiliation

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Shoubra, Benha University

Email

heba.bakry@feng.bu.edu.eg

City

cairo

Orcid

-

Volume

52

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

39838

Issue Date

2023-04-01

Receive Date

2023-01-01

Publish Date

2023-04-01

Page Start

64

Page End

71

Print ISSN

3009-6049

Online ISSN

3009-6022

Link

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/article_292999.html

Detail API

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=292999

Order

292,999

Type

Research articles

Type Code

2,276

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Engineering Research Journal (Shoubra)

Publication Link

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Using The Activity-Based Models to Study the Effect of Increasing Fuel Prices on the Individuals’ Daily Movement Patterns

Details

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Article

Created At

29 Dec 2024