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283361

AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MOST IMPORTANT STRATEGIC CROPS IN EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURE

Article

Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

Subjects

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Tags

Agricultural Economics. Extension and Rural Sociology

Abstract

The research studied the impact of climatic changes on the productivity of the most important strategic crops in Egyptian Agriculture, with the aim of determining the extent to which productivity has changed due to climate change by using the Autoregressive Distributed lagged methodology (ARDL), where it was found that there is an inverse relationship between climate changes and the productivity of the maize crop, a relationship that is consistent with the economic logic as shown: Stability of some variables of the estimated models, at the zero level, while some of them stabilized at the first difference, there is no degree of integration of the second degree, so the estimation conditions were applied, using the (ARDL). There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between climate changes and the productivity of the maize crop, as its estimated significance has been proven. The value of the error correction coefficient was about (0.650) for the maize crop, which indicates that when the productivity of the maize crop deviates from the equilibrium value during the short term, the speed of Its return to the equilibrium value in the long run, which is about 65% for the maize crop from imbalance, until it reaches equilibrium after about 1.4 years to return the long-term equilibrium position.  The study showed an inverse relationship between climate changes and the productivity of the maize crop in the long term, where an increase in maximum temperatures by 1% leads to decrease in the productivity of the maize crop, by about 0.07%, which is consistent with economic theory.
The study recommended were the necessity of selecting of genetically improved, high-yielding varieties and seeds that can withstand climatic changes, drought and humidity. Use the modern technology to store the grains to reduce the waste of storage. Depend on the early warning systems for sudden weather changes to achieve the food security. Expand of the green economy projects and environmentally friendly projects. Establish the economic policies to take into account adaptation the climate changes. Uses of the optimum available water resources.

DOI

10.21608/mjard.2022.283361

Keywords

Climate Change, temperatures, ARDL Model, long and short run, correction coefficient

Volume

42

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

36806

Issue Date

2022-12-01

Receive Date

2023-01-31

Publish Date

2022-12-01

Page Start

367

Page End

381

Print ISSN

1110-0257

Online ISSN

2812-6505

Link

https://mjard.journals.ekb.eg/article_283361.html

Detail API

https://mjard.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=283361

Order

283,361

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Minia Journal of Agricultural Research and Development

Publication Link

https://mjard.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MOST IMPORTANT STRATEGIC CROPS IN EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURE

Details

Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024