Beta
388986

Short and Long-run Impacts of Climatic variables on Agricultural Output in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

Subjects

-

Tags

التنمية الاقتصادية

Abstract

The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of Pesaran et al., (2001) is used to estimate the long and short-run impacts of climatic factors, i.e., average temperature, average rainfall, and, CO2 emissions, on agriculture output in Egypt over 1980-2020. Control variables employed include energy consumption, fertilizer use, rural population, and domestic credit to the agriculture sector. According to the ARDL results, there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Egyptian agriculture output and the explanatory variables. In the long run, a 1% increase in CO2 emissions per capita will lead to a %3.72 decrease in agriculture output but an increase of average annual temperature by 1% results in a rise of the Egyptian agricultural value added by 2.962%. Rainfall is found to have a negative but insignificant impact on agrarian output. Regarding the long-run effects of non-climatic factors, a 1% increase in fertilizer use, energy consumption, percentage of rural population to total population, and credit to agricultural sector would result in an increase of the agrarian production by around 1.3%, 4%, 13%, and 0.26%, respectively. With regard to short-run dynamics, the error-correction term has the expected negative sign implying that about 5% of any movements from disequilibrium are corrected for within the same year. Short-run elasticities are lower than long-run counterparts, with the short-run coefficient of fertilizers use having a negative and significant impact on agrarian value added. lagged agriculture credit negatively impacts agricultural output, as smallholder farmers lack access to credit due to collateral issues.

DOI

10.21608/psej.2024.296523.1130

Keywords

Climate Change, CO2 emissions, Agricultural output

Authors

First Name

أميرة عقل

Last Name

أحمد

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

قسم الاقتصاد - كلية التجارة - جامعة بنها

Email

amira.ahmed@fcom.bu.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

ممدوح عبد المولى محمد

Last Name

عبد السلام

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

كلية التجارة-جامعة المنوفية

Email

mamdouh.abdelmoula@commerce.menofia.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

دعاء عقل

Last Name

أحمد

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

قسم الاقتصاد - كلية التجارة - جامعة بنها

Email

doaa.ahmed01@fcom.bu.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

4

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

51258

Issue Date

2024-10-01

Receive Date

2024-06-09

Publish Date

2024-10-01

Page Start

139

Page End

172

Print ISSN

2805-3028

Online ISSN

2805-3036

Link

https://psej.journals.ekb.eg/article_388986.html

Detail API

https://psej.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=388986

Order

388,986

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

2,110

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

مجلة الدراسات السياسية والاقتصادية

Publication Link

https://psej.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Short and Long-run Impacts of Climatic variables on Agricultural Output in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024