348069

Modelling current and future distribution of some invasive weeds at local and global scales under climatic change

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Environmental Sciences and their applications

Abstract

The global climate change, including increases in temperature and precipitation, may aggravate the invasion of weed species. In the present study, Ensemble modelling was performed to predict the distribution of three invasive weeds, namely Atriplex lindleyi, Trianthema portulacastrum, and Xanthium strumarium, worldwide and in Egypt under the current and future global climate changes. T. portulacastrum showed the highest suitability in Africa compare to other parts of the world and compare to other study species. Asia and Europe are more suitable for the potential presence of X. strumarium. For A. lindleyi, there was no clear change in the suitable habitat under the current and future climatic scenarios in Egypt. T. portulacastrum is predicted to have expansion under the climate change particularly in eastern desert of Egypt and Nile Delta. X. strumarium showed high expansion in Sinai compared to other regions under the highest climatic scenario 2090. T. portulacastrum presence increased gradually with the increase of the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) and the driest quarter temperature (Bio9). This indicate that the global warming in the future will be in favour to increase the invasion risk of this species up to 40 ◦C. In contrast, the probability of presence of X. strumarium is gradually decreased with the increase of isothermality. Climatic models will predict the increase T. portulacastrum distribution both globally and locally. Therefore, long-term management plans are needed around the world and in Egypt to reduce the habitat expansion of T. portulacastrum.

DOI

10.21608/sjdfs.2024.262623.1157

Keywords

Climate Change, Ensemble modelling, habitat suitability, exotic weed species, Nile Delta

Authors

First Name

Abdelhamid

Last Name

Khedr

MiddleName

A.

Affiliation

Botany &Microbiology Dept. Fac. Sci. Damietta University

Email

abdelkhedr@du.edu.eg

City

New Damietta

Orcid

0000-0002-2270-8945

First Name

Mamdouh

Last Name

Serag

MiddleName

A.

Affiliation

Botany Department, Faculty of Science, Damietta University, Egypt

Email

mamdouhserag054@gmail.com

City

New Damietta

Orcid

https://orcid.org/00

First Name

Reham

Last Name

Elbaroughy

MiddleName

F

Affiliation

Botany &Microbiology Dept. Fac. Sci. Damietta University

Email

rehamfekry86@gmail.com

City

New Damietta

Orcid

-

First Name

Hanan

Last Name

Abo Elagras

MiddleName

A.

Affiliation

Botany &Microbiology Dept. Fac. Sci. Damietta University

Email

khaledmohamed2018aaa@gmail.com

City

ND

Orcid

-

Volume

14

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

45683

Issue Date

2024-03-01

Receive Date

2024-01-13

Publish Date

2024-03-01

Page Start

28

Page End

39

Print ISSN

2314-8594

Online ISSN

2314-8616

Link

https://sjdfs.journals.ekb.eg/article_348069.html

Detail API

https://sjdfs.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=348069

Order

348,069

Type

Original articles

Type Code

2,045

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Scientific Journal for Damietta Faculty of Science

Publication Link

https://sjdfs.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Modelling current and future distribution of some invasive weeds at local and global scales under climatic change

Details

Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024