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281979

Analyzing the impact of the most important current economic variables on the Egyptian agricultural trade balance

Article

Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

Subjects

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Tags

Agricultural Economics and Management Sciences

Abstract

The study aimed to analyze the evolution of the structure of the Egyptian agriculture foreign trade, since the beginning of the twenty-first century. by examines the impact of the most important economic changes during the period 2000-2021. The study relied on use of descriptive and quantitative statistical analysis methods such as time-trend equations, the co-integration test and vector error correction model VECM. The study period was divided into three periods. Result of study showed that period 2016-2021 was the most difficult period of national economic growth, as it was shown a slowdown in the growth rates of agricultural exports, reaching 12.7% in the first period 2000-2007, 2.9% in the second period 2008-2015, and 2.3% in the third period 2016-2021, and the Annual change rates of agricultural imports reached 3.8% in the first period 2000-2007, reached 11.9% in the second period 2008-2015, and reached 10.5% in the third period 2016-2021.The stability of the time series of variables for the time period 2000-2021 at the first level was shown in Intercept as well as a categorical intercept and trend, and by conducting the Johansen test, it was found that there is a integration between the study variables and both agricultural exports and imports, and for a balance between them it is necessary to delay three time periods, and by applying the error correction model The vector VECM showed an inverse relationship between agricultural imports and both the exchange rate and the global food price index (FAO), as well as an inverse relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural exports, and a direct relationship between agricultural exports and  the world  food  price  index.

DOI

10.21608/fjard.2023.281979

Authors

First Name

Enas

Last Name

Sadek

MiddleName

El Sayed

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Fayoum University, Egypt

Email

-

City

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Orcid

-

First Name

Mahmoud

Last Name

Ahmed

MiddleName

A.

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Fayoum University, Egypt

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Salma

Last Name

Refat

MiddleName

Mohamed

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Fayoum University, Egypt

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

37

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

39035

Issue Date

2023-01-01

Receive Date

2023-01-24

Publish Date

2023-01-01

Page Start

207

Page End

222

Print ISSN

1110-7790

Online ISSN

2805-2528

Link

https://fjard.journals.ekb.eg/article_281979.html

Detail API

https://fjard.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=281979

Order

281,979

Type

Research articles.

Type Code

1,920

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Fayoum Journal of Agricultural Research and Development

Publication Link

https://fjard.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Analyzing the impact of the most important current economic variables on the Egyptian agricultural trade balance

Details

Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024