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396893

Bayesian Identification of Seasonal Vector ARMA Processes

Article

Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

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Abstract

This research paper uses the Bayesian approach to establish an approximate method to specify the four orders of multivariate seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARMA) models. The proposed methodology consists of four coherent consecutive steps. The first step is the approximation of the likelihood function of the model's parameters by a matrix Normal–Wishart form. The second step is to use a proposed semi-intermediate Bayesian procedure to have initial estimates for the four model orders. The third step is to combine the approximate likelihood function and the initial orders prior with one of the matrix Normal–Wishart prior density or Jeffreys' vague prior to developing an approximate joint posterior probability mass function of the orders of the model in a simple form. The last step is to evaluate the posterior probabilities over the range of the four orders and pick out the values of the orders at which the joint probability mass function reaches the highest probability to be the identified orders of the multivariate seasonal time series being analyzed. To test the adequacy of the proposed methodology, two simulation studies with three different prior orders have been conducted. The numerical results showed that the proposed Bayesian methodology is adequate to identify the orders of multivariate SARMA models for medium and large time series lengths.

DOI

10.21608/esju.2024.318938.1044

Keywords

Seasonal multivariate ARMA processes, semi-Bayesian identification, Matrix Normal-Wishart prior, Jeffreys’ prior, Posterior probability mass function

Authors

First Name

Samir M.

Last Name

Shaarawy

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

College of Business Administration Department of Information Systems and Operations Management Kuwait University, Kuwait

Email

ssamir50@hotmail.com

City

Kuwait

Orcid

-

First Name

Sherif S.

Last Name

Ali

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Statistics, King Abdul Aziz university, KSA

Email

ssali1970@yahoo.com

City

Jiddah

Orcid

-

First Name

Emad ElDin

Last Name

A. Salam

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Statistics King Abdul Aziz university

Email

ehegazy@kau.edu.sa

City

Jiddah

Orcid

0000-0001-5001-9330

Volume

68

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

52073

Issue Date

2024-12-01

Receive Date

2024-09-09

Publish Date

2024-12-01

Page Start

129

Page End

145

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_396893.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=396893

Order

7

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Bayesian Identification of Seasonal Vector ARMA Processes

Details

Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024