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315002

Fully Bayesian Analysis of Bivariate Arma Models

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Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

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Abstract

This paper proposes a convenient way to do a complete Bayesian analysis of bivariate time series generated by auto-regressive moving average models. The identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting phases of time series analysis is done by referring to the appropriate posterior or predictive distribution. Using either a matrix normal-Wishart prior density, or a Jeffreys' vague prior, which is combined with an approximate conditional likelihood function, the proposed identification technique is based on the matrix posterior t distribution of the coefficients of a bivariate ARMA model. The coefficients of the process are then tested to be zero by a series of matrix t tests to identify a tentative model. Once the tentative model is chosen, diagnostic checking tests are done by doing some overfitting tests to achieve an adequate model. The parameters of the adequate model are estimated by using the matrix t and Wishart distributions. Finally, forecasting future observations is done by using the multivariate t distribution.

DOI

10.21608/esju.1991.315002

Keywords

Bivariate ARMA Processes, Bayesian Analysis, Matrix t distribution, identification, Estimation, Diagnostic Checking, Forecasting

Authors

First Name

Samir

Last Name

Shaarawy

MiddleName

Moustafa

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Volume

35

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

43184

Issue Date

1991-06-01

Receive Date

2023-08-28

Publish Date

1991-06-01

Page Start

144

Page End

162

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_315002.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=315002

Order

11

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Fully Bayesian Analysis of Bivariate Arma Models

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Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024