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314867

Validation of Certain Statistics for Stochastic PERT Networks

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Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

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Abstract

This paper uses a least squares regression analysis to verify the well-known PERT estimate of the mean activity time as a weighted average of the optimistic (a), most likely or modal (m) and pessimistic (b) activity times in the classical formula: ûx = ( a + am + b )/6, and the estimate of the standard deviation of activity duration as one-sixth of the range: σx = (b-a)/6. Based on properties of the beta distribution, the paper shows also that there are theoretical grounds for using these estimates for a specified range of modal activity times, because in this range, ûx closely approximates the actual relationship between the mean and the mode.

DOI

10.21608/esju.1992.314867

Keywords

Beta Distribution, Least Squares Regression Analysis, Mean Activity Time, Modal Activity Time, PERT Estimate

Authors

First Name

Ibrahim

Last Name

Abdel-Fattah

MiddleName

Mousa

Affiliation

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Volume

36

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

43182

Issue Date

1992-12-01

Receive Date

2023-08-28

Publish Date

1992-12-01

Page Start

291

Page End

306

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_314867.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=314867

Order

8

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Validation of Certain Statistics for Stochastic PERT Networks

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Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024