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314530

On the Adequacy of Using T Approximation in Bayesian Inferences of Arma Models

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Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

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Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to examine the adequacy of using the t approximation in handling the Bayesian inferential problems of autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) processes. Simulation studies, with a wide variety of ARMA models, are carried out to demonstrate the performance of the t approximation and to check its adequacy in estimating the parameters and forecasting the future observations of ARMA processes. The adequacy of using the t approximation is measured by computing the percentages of the highest posterior density (HPD) regions which contain the true coefficients and future observations. The simulation is carried out with different realization sizes, using a non-informative prior density, in order to study the behavior of the t approximation when adding more observations. The numerical results support the adequacy of using the t approximation in making Bayesian inferences about the parameters and future observations of ARMA processes.

DOI

10.21608/esju.1999.314530

Keywords

Bayesian Inference, ARMA Processes, Estimations, Forecasting, t Approximation, Simulation, HPD region

Volume

43

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

43140

Issue Date

1999-12-01

Publish Date

1999-12-01

Page Start

193

Page End

208

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_314530.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=314530

Order

8

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

On the Adequacy of Using T Approximation in Bayesian Inferences of Arma Models

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Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024