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314441

Futures Studies and Markov Chain Hybrid Dynamic Multiplicative Model for Probability Impact Analysis

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Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Decisions are made for the future, Futures Studies investigate possible fan of futures scenarios and its probabilities for easier making decision processes, taking into consideration unprecedented future events (wildcards) for clear vision of the future. Markov Chain method generally used as a mean of characterizing or summarizing data and of projecting the time path of certain variables. The main ideas of this paper rely on using the slope and curvature of variables historical data time series to convert it to historical states time series, followed by Association Rule Mining to build a Markov Chain Transition Probability Matrix from the variable historical states time series. Finally we introduce hybridization between the Futures Studies and Markov chain by building "a Dynamic Multiplicative Model for Probability Impact Analysis". Our introduced methodologies allow studying the occurrence impact of multiple wildcards on multiple variables states' probabilities at future years.  

DOI

10.21608/esju.2014.314441

Keywords

Futures Studies - Markov Chain - Transition Probability Matrix, Slope - Curvature

Volume

58

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

43134

Issue Date

2014-06-01

Publish Date

2014-06-01

Page Start

87

Page End

101

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_314441.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=314441

Order

5

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Futures Studies and Markov Chain Hybrid Dynamic Multiplicative Model for Probability Impact Analysis

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Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024