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314328

Forecasting Egyptian Stock Market Volatility with Markov Regime Switching GARCH Models

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Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

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Abstract

In the present work, GARCH models are incorporated in a regime- switching framework that
allows to take into account the existence of two different volatility regimes which characterized
by a different level of volatility. In both regimes volatility follows a GARCH-like pattern since
GARCH models typically show high volatility persistence. To take into account the excessive
persistence usually found in GARCH models that implies too smooth and too high volatility
forecasts, Markov Regime- Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models where the parameters
are allowed to switch between a low and a high volatility regime, are used.

DOI

10.21608/esju.2012.314328

Keywords

volatility, Forecasting - Markov Regime-Switching GARCH

Volume

56

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

43108

Issue Date

2012-06-01

Publish Date

2012-06-01

Page Start

38

Page End

51

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_314328.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=314328

Order

4

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Forecasting Egyptian Stock Market Volatility with Markov Regime Switching GARCH Models

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Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024