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313454

Model Identification step plays an important and difficult part in time series analysis because the other steps of analysis depend on it and its accuracy. This article proposes a

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Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Model Identification step plays an important and difficult part in time series analysis because the other steps of analysis depend on it and its accuracy. This article proposes an exact direct Bayesian technique to identify the order of bivariate autoregressive processes using Jeffreys' vague prior. Using the conditional likelihood function, the proposed technique is based on deriving the exact posterior probability mass function of the model order in a convenient form. Then one may easily evaluate the posterior probabilities of the model order and choose the order at which the posterior mass function attains its maximum to be the identified order. The performance of the proposed technique is checked using a P simulation study with three different prior mass functions. The analysis of the numerical results supports the adequacy of the proposed technique in identifying the orders of bivariate autoregressive processes.

DOI

10.21608/esju.2006.313454

Keywords

identification, Bivariate Autoregressive Processes, Conditional Likelihood Function, Jeffreys' prior, Probability Mass Function

Volume

50

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

42976

Issue Date

2006-06-01

Publish Date

2006-06-01

Page Start

60

Page End

81

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_313454.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=313454

Order

5

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Model Identification step plays an important and difficult part in time series analysis because the other steps of analysis depend on it and its accuracy. This article proposes an exact direct Bayesian technique to identify the order of bivariate autoregressive processes using Jeffreys' vague prior. Using the conditional likelihood function, the proposed technique is based on deriving the exact posterior probability mass function of the model order in a convenient form. Then one may easily eval

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Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024