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291491

A Direct Bayesian Methodology to Identify the Order of Moving Average Processes using Different Prior Distributions

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

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Tags

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Abstract

The current study handles the direct Bayesian identification of moving average processes based on different well known Informative and Non-Informativv priors. The priors considered in the article are g prior, natural-conjugate prior as well as Jeffreys' prior. Posterior probability mass functions for the order of moving average models are developed using the above mentioned three priors. Then, the value of the order with maximum probability is selected as the identified order of the model. In order to ease and simplify the computations, the likelihood function of the moving average process is approximated. Effectiveness of each posterior mass function in identifying an order for the model is assessed via Mont-Carlo simulations. Numerical results support the use of the proposed Bayesian technique to solve the identification problem of moving average processes. Furthermore, the performance of the technique using g prior is better than its performance using the natural-conjugate prior which, in turn, is slightly better than the performance using Jeffreys' prior.

DOI

10.21608/esju.2023.164672.1008

Keywords

Moving average processes, Direct Bayesian identification, indirect Bayesian identification, informative priors, non-informative priors

Authors

First Name

Emad ElDin

Last Name

Soliman

MiddleName

Abdel Salam

Affiliation

Department of Statistics King Abdul Aziz university

Email

ehegazy@kau.edu.sa

City

Jiddah

Orcid

0000-0001-5001-9330

First Name

Mohamed

Last Name

Al Bassam

MiddleName

S.

Affiliation

Department of Statistics, King Abdul Aziz university, KSA

Email

malbassam@kau.edu.sa

City

Jeddah

Orcid

-

First Name

Sherif

Last Name

Ali

MiddleName

S.

Affiliation

Department of Statistics, King Abdul Aziz university, KSA

Email

ssali1970@yahoo.com

City

Jiddah

Orcid

-

Volume

66

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

40352

Issue Date

2022-12-01

Receive Date

2022-09-22

Publish Date

2022-12-31

Page Start

1

Page End

16

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_291491.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=291491

Order

1

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

A Direct Bayesian Methodology to Identify the Order of Moving Average Processes using Different Prior Distributions

Details

Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024