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303393

Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010

Article

Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

Subjects

-

Tags

الإحصاء الحيوي
تحليل السلاسل الزمنية

Abstract

Egypt's population has rapidly increased since the beginning of the twentieth century. This rapid increase reflects mainly both fertility and mortality. Here, a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze a time series of crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt for the time period 1992 - 2010 are derived. We used these predictions to get predicted values for Natural Increase Rate (NIR) for the time period 1992 - 2010. Needless to say: that these predictions are of great value for policy makers and workers in family planning field.

DOI

10.21608/mskas.1993.303393

Keywords

ARIMA, fertility, mortality, Egypt

Volume

27

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

41825

Issue Date

1993-12-01

Receive Date

2023-06-13

Publish Date

1993-12-01

Page Start

67

Page End

81

Print ISSN

1110-1156

Online ISSN

2786-0078

Link

https://mskas.journals.ekb.eg/article_303393.html

Detail API

https://mskas.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=303393

Order

303,393

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,913

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة

Publication Link

https://mskas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010

Details

Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024