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381535

External Shocks, Exchange Rate Adjustments, and Income Distribution in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

استشراف مستقبلات التنمية في الدول العربية، من خلال دراسات ذات أبعاد مس…أدوات استشراف المستقبل وتطبيقها على حالات وقضايا تنموية مصرية وعربية.

Abstract

This study examines the complex dynamics of the Egyptian economy in response to external shocks and currency devaluation. Applying a SAM-based CGE model, the research focuses on the economic linkages between production sectors, households, government and the rest of the world, on resource competition on markets for production factors and goods, and on macroeconomic constraints in the government budget, savings and investment, and foreign exchange revenues. Key findings reveal the substantial impact of differential domestic inflation (45%) and the challenges posed by limited foreign exchange inflows (32%) and eroded export competitiveness (19%). External shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events, yield nuanced impacts on GDP, employment, household consumption, and inequality. Sectoral analyses highlight varied effects on export-oriented and non-tradable industries. As Egypt grapples with global challenges, the study emphasizes the need for targeted policies balancing export competitiveness, foreign savings, and domestic stability. The findings contribute practical insights for policymakers navigating the complexities of a dynamic global economy.

DOI

10.21608/inp.2024.276729.1082

Keywords

exchange rate, external shocks, Macroeconomics, Egyptian Economy, CGE

Authors

First Name

Mariam

Last Name

Raouf

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

معهد التخطيط القومي

Email

mariam.raouf234@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Sherine

Last Name

Boshra Ghaly

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

أكاديمية السادات للعلوم الإدارية معهد التخطيط القومي

Email

sherine.toma@sadatacademy.edu.eg

City

القاهرة

Orcid

-

First Name

Manfred

Last Name

Wiebelt

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Email

manfred.wiebelt@ifw-kiel.de

City

CAIRO

Orcid

-

First Name

Fatma

Last Name

Elhamalawy

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

معهد التخطيط القومي

Email

fatma.khamis@inp.edu.eg

City

Cairo

Orcid

-

Volume

32

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

50510

Issue Date

2024-09-01

Receive Date

2024-03-13

Publish Date

2024-09-01

Page Start

106

Page End

140

Print ISSN

1110-984X

Online ISSN

2785-9940

Link

https://inp.journals.ekb.eg/article_381535.html

Detail API

https://inp.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=381535

Order

381,535

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,811

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة المصرية للتنمية والتخطيط

Publication Link

https://inp.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

External Shocks, Exchange Rate Adjustments, and Income Distribution in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

28 Dec 2024