The research aims to remove the effect of directional changes and autocorrelation between the residuals for the production and consumption of the most important oil crops (soybeans, cottonseed, sunflower) to reach a stable time series using the Box-Jenkins model methodology and predict the production and consumption of the crop during the period from (2002-2022) for guidance. To help decision makers in formulating policies and developing future plans to address the size of the decorative gap and find solutions to reduce it.
It turned out that the optimal forecasting model is ARIMA (0,1,1) for the soybean oil crop during the period (2023-2027), where the gap gradually decreased, reaching about 68 thousand tons, 66 thousand tons, 64 thousand tons, 63 thousand tons, and 61 thousand tons. tons respectively during the forecast period. It was also found that the best prediction model for cottonseed oil yield was ARIMA (1,1,1), where the gap began to gradually decrease, reaching about 0.99 thousand tons, 0.24 thousand tons, 0.78 thousand tons, 0.36 thousand tons, 0.33 thousand tons respectively during the forecast period, and it turned out that the best model for predicting production and consumption of the sunflower crop is ARIMA (0,0,1), ARIMA (2,2,2) respectively, as the prediction data for the size of the gap indicates a gradual decline, reaching about 141.57. One thousand tons and 131.91 thousand tons, 55.11 thousand tons in 2023, 2024, and 2025. This quantity represents a burden on the Egyptian balance of payments, as the gap decreased in 2026 and 2027, respectively, during the forecast period by about 40.37 thousand tons and 113.26 thousand tons.
Food gap data, in light of the quantity produced and consumed of the most important oil crops under study (soybeans, cottonseed, sunflowers), indicate a gradual increase in production, which indicates the effectiveness of the technological level used in improving crop productivity and seeking to increase production in a way that keeps pace with increased consumption. This reflects that Egypt enjoys a high comparative advantage in growing the crops under study during the forecast period and that Egypt enjoys a high rate of self-sufficiency in the crop during the forecast period.
The study recommends using the models that were reached to predict the production and consumption of the most important oil crops under study (soybeans, cottonseed, sunflowers) in order to enable the size of the gap to be predicted in a correct way to develop future plans, to improve the productivity of these crops and seek to increase production in a way that keeps pace with the increase in production. Consumption through cultivation on reclaimed lands and new lands, and on the one hand, developing high-quality and productive varieties in order to reduce the burden on the agricultural balance.