Providing food crops is considered one of the most important goals that government to achieve. Therefore, the state resorts to importing to cover the deficit in the Egyptian agricultural trade balance, which has been suffering from a negative imbalance since the seventies of the last century. his necessitates the export of cash crops such as potatoes to provide foreign currency, and thus competition arises between crops to allocate agricultural production resources, and the exchange rate plays its role. Egypt's adoption of a free market economy policy led to the issuance of several decisions to reduce the value of the pound against foreign currencies, as the value of the pound decreased from about 8.77 pounds/dollar in 2016 to about 49.47 pounds/dollar in 2024.The main objective of the research is to study the impact of the change in the exchange rate on the production, consumption, imports and exports of wheat and potatoes, and to study the most important internal and external factors affecting the consumption of both wheat and potatoes.
It was also shown that with an increase in the exchange rate by EGP/USD, exports, imports, total national trade, exports, imports, and total agricultural trade increase by approximately EGP 41.05, 91.61, 132.66, 3.45, 11.99, and 15.44 billion, respectively. It was also shown that with an increase in the exchange rate by EGP/USD, exports, imports, total national and agricultural trade increase by approximately EGP 41.05, 91.61, 132.66, 3.45, 11.99, and 15.44 billion, respectively. Also, the quantity of consumption, production, and the quantity and value of wheat imports increase by approximately EGP 0.36, 0.04, 0.17 million tons, and EGP 3.76 billion, respectively. Also, the quantity of consumption, production, and the quantity and value of potato exports increase by approximately EGP 0.13, 0.15, and 0.02 million tons. And 0.29 billion pounds, respectively, during the period (2008-2022).
The simultaneous model also showed that an increase in population leads to an increase in the quantities consumed and imported wheat, while an increase in the exchange rate led to a decrease in the quantity of wheat production, while an increase in the quantity of potato production led to an increase in both consumption and exports.