The research aimed to estimate the maximum sustainable yield from the Nile River in Egypt, and this can be achieved through the following sub-objectives: (1) Studying evolution of the total fish production from the Nile River in Egypt during the period (2006-2020), (2) Studying evolution of the number of sailing fishing units. (Third degree) for catching fish production from the most important areas overlooking the Nile River in Egypt during the research period. (3) Estimating the maximum sustainable yield and the fishing effort that attainable for the sustainability of the Nile River in Egypt during the same research period.
In achieving its objectives, The research relied on the use of some descriptive and quantitative economic analysis methods in analyzing data related to the subject of the research and specifically the following economic methods and models were use: (1) Some statistical methods such as arithmetic averages and Geometric mean, and percentages ratio, (2) The annual changes rates for economic variables using the growth function, and surplus production model for Fox to estimate the maximum sustainable yield and the fishing effort that attainable for the most important distinct areas on the Nile River in Egypt during the period (2006-2020).
The research is based on published secondary data from Fish Statistics Year Book by General Authority for Fish Resources Development (GAFRD) for Ministry of agriculture and land reclamation.
The research reached to results:The most important fish production areas overlooking the Nile River in terms of production were: the Central Delta region, which ranks first with a rate of about 45.31%, followed by the Nile Valley region with a rate of about 31.25%, and statistical significance has not been established for them during the period (2006-2020), which indicates a fluctuation in the quantities of fish production for them around the average, as for the Damietta region, it ranked third with a rate of about 10.95%, followed by the Aswan region with a rate of about 9.59%. The statistical significance for them was proven with high rates of decrease of about 5%, 15.5%.
The statistical significance of the Fox model was proven at the probability level of 0.01 for both the Central Delta and the Nile Valley regions, while the statistical significance was not proven for both the Damietta and Aswan regions, which indicates that there is no over fishing in them.
The results of the Fox model indicated that the MSY from the central delta region can be caught without disturbing the biological balance was estimated about 34.29 thousand tons at optimum Fishing effort level, which attainable for the MSY by about 5,500 boats. And the actual production exceeded the max. allowable production according to the Fox model during the period (2006-2020), with the exception of years 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2017, which indicates excessive The fishing process, in addition to the increase in the Fishing effort which represented in the number of sailing fishing boats (third degree) in the central delta region in compared to the estimated Fmax, which attainable for the MSY in 2006 and 2009 about 1693, 6 boats, respectively, The results of the Fox model indicated that the MSY from the Nile Valley region can be caught without disturbing the biological balance was estimated about 18.92 thousand tons at optimum Fmax level, which attainable for the MSY by about 1000 boats. And the actual production exceeded the max. allowable production according to the Fox model during the period (2006-2020), with the exception of years 2008 and 2013, which indicates excessive The fishing process, in addition to the increase in the Fishing effort which
represented in the number of sailing fishing boats (third degree) in the Nile Valley region in compared to the estimated Fmax, which attainable for the MSY about 1473 boats as an average for the research period.
The research recommends: (1) Tightening oversight to implement the fishing law and combat illegal fishing activities to preserve the stock of fish species to the extent that protects it from decrease and then to the point of depletion, especially in the central Delta and Nile Valley regions. (2) Intensify efforts to improve the management and protection of fish resources in the Nile River, especially in light of future challenges such as climate change, pollution, and human encroachment.