Economic conditions worsened globally after the COVID-19 pandemic, and price pressures led to central banks adopting tight monetary policies. As a result, interest rates rose sharply and price volatility increased, which affected household budgets, consumption, and investment, which may result in social damage to society. The impact of the severity of inflation differed from one country to another according to the strength of the economy of each of them and the policies used to confront the crisis, and whether the country was an oil exporter or an importer due to the high price of a barrel of oil since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The research aims to analyze the impact of the economic crises that accompanied the period from 2010 until the last two successive events since late 2019, namely the spread of the Corona pandemic (covid-19) and the Russian-Ukrainian war on the economies of emerging and developing countries in the Arab region.
The research followed the descriptive approach to study the the impact of economic crises on the economies of emerging and developing countries in the Arab region on economic variables such as the exchange rate of the local currency against the dollar, inflation rate, balance in the trade balance, and international reserves of foreign exchange, during the period From the first quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of 2022.
The research depends on secondary data sources published on the World Wide Web, namely: the International Monetary Fund (IMF, Data) and the World Bank. and the Arab Monetary Fund. In addition to using the Egyptian Knowledge Bank (EKB) database to obtain research related to the subject of this research.
The research showed that the economic crises affected on the growth rates of the economies of developed, emerging and developing countries. Where it was found that the growth rate in the world's gross domestic product and in developed and emerging markets decreased in 1997, 1998 due to the Southeast Asian crisis, and the world was exposed to the mortgage crisis in USA in 2008, followed by the European debt crisis in 2009, and because of them there was a sharp decline in the rate of GDP growth and take a negative value in developed countries, however, in the economies of emerging and developing countries, the growth rate decreased, but it remained positive. The growth rate also declined more violently due to the pandemic of the spread of the Corona virus for both developed, emerging and developing countries, and before countries recovered, the world entered into a new economic crisis due to the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2021.
It is clear from the research that the trade balance deficit in goods and services as a percentage of the gross domestic product takes negative values for all countries under study, but it varies according to the ability of the economies of each country to carry out successful economic reforms that reduce this deficit. The year 2011 is the year of political crises, as if it were the year of popular revolutions for the Arab countries. For the State of Egypt, the trade balance deficit has increased since 2012, when this period witnessed the effects of the repercussions of the revolution of January 25, 2011, and the subsequent political and security instability, the flight of foreign capital, and a significant decline in both foreign investment flows and tourism activity.
This period is characterized a by a widening gap between inflation rates and real growth rates of domestic production.
However, the Egyptian economy has implemented an economic reform program since 2016 aimed at achieving economic stability and addressing macroeconomic imbalances through liberalizing the exchange rate regime, controlling public finances, and reforming the energy sector. This program was largely successful in supporting growth and generating a surplus in the budget. and reducing the ratio of public debt to GDP and replenishing foreign reserves, but there are still weaknesses in exports and the performance of foreign direct investment.
The research showed that there are risks to global peace and security as a result of these crises, represented in:
- That workers will be forced to demand a wage increase (and companies accept that) in light of the continuing high cost of living and an increase in the supply shortage in the labor market. The resulting rise in the cost of labor would, in turn, drive up prices further, setting in motion an inflationary cycle against which strong policy action is required.
- With the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the shortage of supply chains continues and the interest rate rises again on the part of USA, which leads to an increase in the cost of debt and the flight of foreign capital, and thus insufficient reserves to bridge debts and their inability to bridge the gap in the balance of payments, which leads to an increase in inflation rates. In an unprecedented manner, it is working to enter the economy into a state of inflationary stagnation, which in turn works to lower growth rates.
- Poverty levels will increase and the middle class will turn into a category of low-income classes, which will lead to food insecurity among those classes.
- The social effects are no less important than the economic effects, as the decline in purchasing power, the spread of unemployment, and the loss of families of their savings and property lead to a deep sense of misery and frustration, which leads to a sense of dissatisfaction, which increases opponents of government policies, increases political strikes, and the emergence of factional revolutions to increase salaries.
- The devaluation of the currency does not alleviate the challenges facing the balance of payments, which can be addressed more effectively through fiscal policies.
In light of the research results obtained, the research recommends the following:
1- The need to adopt a monetary policy that works to stabilize prices, while directing public fiscal policy towards easing pressures resulting from the cost of living, provided that its stance remains sufficiently stringent in line with monetary policy.
2- Increasing the efficiency of debt management in order to reduce debt servicing costs (eg by reducing reliance on expensive short-term financing).
3- Taking arrangements to improve productivity and reduce supply shortages, and relying on multilateral cooperation as a necessary tool to accelerate the transition to green.
4- The examination of exchange systems, like other economic policy mechanisms, is not chosen final, but rather according to the circumstances of each country and according to the stage it is going through.
5- The oil-exporting countries whose economies depend on the production and export of oil and raw gas which in turn exposes their economies to violent shocks work to the diversity of their economic and productive activities
6- To alleviate the high demand on the US dollar currency, it is possible to deal between countries in foreign trade, especially those that have agreements or trade blocs, using other monetary units among them.
7- building models for helping to forecast the impact of external and internal shocks on macroeconomic variables so that models are used to predict the changes of those variables in a way that reduces the standard error to the lowest possible value