The marine fish output in Egypt is considered one of the important pillars for providing animal protein and saving foreign currency from the export of these luxurious fish. The marine surface area of the Mediterranean is estimated at about 6.6 thousand km2, representing about 37.7% of the total marine water area of about 17.05 thousand km2. While the marine surface area of the Red Sea is about 10.45 thousand km2, or about 61.3% of the total marine water bodies in 2020.
The research problem is that despite increasing of the marine water area, which is estimated at about 11.24 million feddan, representing about 80.6% of the total water area in Egypt, which is about 13.94 million feddan, the marine fish output is not commensurate with that water area, as the total output reached Marine fish is about 564.39 thousand tons, representing about 22.82% of the total Egyptian fish production, which is about 2.47 million tons in 2022, which calls for studying the current situation of the marine fish production of Mediterranean and Red Sea, and trying to identify the reasons for the decline in the amount of marine fish production, and then the possibility of advancement. this vital sector. This research mainly aims to study the current situation of the marine fish output of Mediterranean and Red Sea in Egypt. The research depends on both descriptive economic analysis and econometrics to estimate the growth functions of the variables under study. The monthly seasonal index of fishery output for Mediterranean and Red Sea was also estimated, as well as the forecast of marine fishery output using the standard SARIMA model.
The most important research results: -
1- Decrease in total fish production from the Red Sea at an annual rate of about 2%, with a decrease of about 1.26 thousand tons annually during the study period. 2- Increasing fish production from the northern lakes at an annual growth rate of about 1.2%, an increase of about 1.61 thousand tons annually during the study period. 3- Decrease in fish production from inland waters at an annual rate of about 12% during the study period, with an annual decrease of about 27.1 thousand tons annually. 4- Increasing the total fish production from fish farming at an annual growth rate of about 8.4%, an increase of about 76.39 thousand tons annually during the study period. 5- By examining the monthly seasonal fluctuations in the fisheries output of the Mediterranean fisheries during the period (2017-2020), it was found that there are two distinct periods. The first includes the months of January, February, March, April, and December, and is characterized by lower fish production in that period than the general average due to the increase in marine pollution in the Mediterranean fisheries. As for the second period, it includes the months of May, June, July, August, September, October, and November, and is characterized by a relative increase in marine fish production from the general average, and this is due to the natural and environmental factors affecting the rise in water temperatures in that period, which most of the fish begin to breed and reproduce in the spring and summer, then they grow and grow and their impact appears in those months. 6- By studying the monthly seasonal fluctuations of the total fish output of the Red Sea fisheries during the period (2017-2020), it became clear from the estimation of the monthly seasonal ratios that there are two distinct periods. The first includes the months of April, May, June, July, August, and September and is characterized by lower output in that period than the general average, and the decrease in output in that period is attributed to overfishing by some fishermen, as fry are caught with large fish. Which affects the fish stocks in the Red Sea, which would reduce fish production during that period. As for the second period, it includes the months of January, February, March, October, November, and December. It is characterized by an increase in marine fish production from the general average. This is due to the fact that most fish begin to reproduce during that period of the year.