This research studied the impact of climate changes on the wheat productivity in Egypt during the period (1990-2021), with the aim of determining the extent to which productivity changes due to climate change, and to identify the extent to which the actual reality matches with the economic theory which emphasizes that climate change leads to the agricultural productivity change. Statistical tests were carried out to ensure the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the impact of climate changes on wheat productivity in Egypt using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Methodology (ARDL), as it was found that there is an inverse relationship between the climate changes and the wheat productivity, which is a relationship consistent with economic logic as shown:
1- The possibility of applying the estimation conditions using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Methodology (ARDL), where it was found that there is no degree of integration of the second degrees, and the stability of some model variables at the zero level, while others were stationary at the first level.
2- The existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between climate change and wheat productivity in Egypt.
3- The significance of the error correction coefficient and its negative sign, as it reached (-0.68) at a significant level of 0.01, indicates the existence of a co-integration relationship between the variables that explain the productivity of the wheat crop, that is, when the productivity of the wheat crop deviates from its equilibrium value during the short term, it soon returns to its equilibrium value in In the long term, about 68% of the imbalance is corrected during the period (t) until it reaches equilibrium again.
4- There is a negative effect of the change in the maximum temperature on the productivity of the wheat crop in the long term, that is, an increase in the maximum temperatures by 1% leads to a decrease in productivity by about 0.1%, which compatibility with economic theory.
Recommendations:
1. Selection of Genetically improved, high-yielding varieties and seeds those are tolerant of climate changes, drought and humidity.
2. Optimal uses of the water resources.
3. Relying on early warning systems for sudden climatic changes to achieve food security stability.
4. Using the modern technology to store grains to reduce storage losses.
5. Expansion of green economy projects and environmentally friendly projects.
6. Develops the economic policies that take into account adaptation to climate change.