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275544

Characteristics and Stylized Facts of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Egypt: A Growth Cycles Approach

Article

Last updated: 27 Dec 2024

Subjects

-

Tags

الاقتصاد والعلوم السياسية

Abstract

Economic activity in Egypt fluctuates year after year and undergoes significant short-run fluctuation. The research examines the main characteristics and dynamics of economic fluctuations in Egypt and builds a set of economic fluctuation indicators: leading, coincident, and lagging by using the "growth cycles approach". The result indicates that household consumption, total capital formation, and the unemployment rate are coincident variables. The import, nominal exchange rate, openness, stock market indicator, and interest rate are leading variables, and finally, government consumption, export, trade account, net export, real exchange rate, REER, all price indicators, banking sector indicators nominal, the real wage, M0 and M2 are lagging variables. Key findings include that external shocks, political instability, trade, and change in demand both domestically and abroad, and procicalical monetary and fiscal policies are the main reasons behind the boom and bust cycle in RGDP in Egypt. Shocks to trend growth are the main source of RGDP fluctuations.

DOI

10.21608/zcom.2022.177637.1191

Keywords

Economic cycle. Fluctuation, leading indicators, lagged indicators, Stylized Facts

Authors

First Name

Mona Mahmoud Hussein Ibrahim

Last Name

Eliwa

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

كلية التجارة -جامعة الزقازيق

Email

mmahmoud3182@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

46

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

46036

Issue Date

2024-01-01

Receive Date

2022-11-29

Publish Date

2024-01-01

Page Start

188

Page End

219

Print ISSN

1110-7731

Online ISSN

2735-4512

Link

https://zcom.journals.ekb.eg/article_275544.html

Detail API

https://zcom.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=275544

Order

275,544

Type

تجاریة کل ما یتعلق بالعلوم التجاریة

Type Code

1,572

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

مجلة البحوث التجارية

Publication Link

https://zcom.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Characteristics and Stylized Facts of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Egypt: A Growth Cycles Approach

Details

Type

Article

Created At

27 Dec 2024