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The impact of the budget deficit on economic growth in Egyptthrough applying the Threshold Regression Model

Article

Last updated: 26 Dec 2024

Subjects

-

Tags

مقالات تجارية

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the budget deficit on economic growth in Egypt during the period from 1995/1996 to 2020/2021. We apply the Threshold Regression Model by identifying three threshold levels of budget deficit: 1) base threshold level –9.5, 2) decreased threshold from –9.5 to less than 1%, and 3) positive surplus of 1%. Our results indicate that the relationship between budget deficit and the growth in GDP is not consistently a linear one depending on the deficit level. In threshold one where the deficit level is –9.5, the impact on the growth in GDP is a decrease of 0.265 for each one percent increase in the deficit. In setting two where the threshold level is less than -9.5% to zero deficits, the decline in GDP increased to 0.650. In the last setting where there is a surplus in the budget, the relationship between GDP and the budget turned positive to 2.14 percent for each one percent of budget surplus. The findings of this study have crucial implications for the government of Egypt in managing the budget and public debt. If the country plans for achieving economic growth, it is necessary to keep budget surplus at one percent or higher. .

DOI

10.21608/sjsc.2023.179989.1215

Keywords

Keywords: Budget deficit, Economic growth, Threshold Regression Model, the first threshold and the second threshold

Authors

First Name

سمر الامير غازى عبدالحميد

Last Name

غازى

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

کليه تجارة جامعه طنطا

Email

samarghazi26@yahoo.com

City

طنطا

Orcid

-

First Name

فاروق فتحى

Last Name

الجزار

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

کليه تجاره جامعه طنطا

Email

farouk.elgazar@commerce.tanta.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

0009-0008-6876-2761

Volume

50

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

38775

Issue Date

2023-07-01

Receive Date

2022-12-10

Publish Date

2023-07-01

Page Start

9

Page End

32

Print ISSN

2682-387X

Online ISSN

2735-4156

Link

https://sjsc.journals.ekb.eg/article_278089.html

Detail API

https://sjsc.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=278089

Order

21

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,473

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة العلمية للبحوث التجارية (جامعة المنوفية)

Publication Link

https://sjsc.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

The impact of the budget deficit on economic growth in Egyptthrough applying the Threshold Regression Model

Details

Type

Article

Created At

26 Dec 2024