343992

Study and analysis of the Saudi demand for imported Bananas fruit. Using the autoregressive and distributed Lag ARDL methodology

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

بحوث علمية متخصصة في الاقتصاد الزراعي.

Abstract

In this research, the Saudi demand model for imported Bananas was estimated, it determined by two explanatory variables, which are Bananas import prices and income per capita. Through unit root test by ADF, imports and values be integration from the degree of zero, while import prices, income per capita and values be integration from degree one, thus autoregressive and distributed lag ARDL methodology can be applied. The output of the R statistical program showed that the ARDL(2,3,3) model in its double-log form with a drift is the best model. Cointegration test was conducted using the boundary test and it was noted that there are long-term equilibrium relationships. The parameters of the model were significant at the level of significance of 10% and agree with the economic logic. The import price elasticity as well income per capita great than one, so the elasticity of Bananas imports to each of independent variable elasticity. By estimating the unrealistic error correction (UECM), the error bound coefficient was negative, significant, and shows that Bananas imports model in the short run could reach to the long run equilibrium in less than two years. The diagnostic tests showed that the model under study does not have econometrics problems, in addition, the model parameters were structurally stable during the study addition coefficients of the ARDL(2,3,3) model are structurally stable over the time interval under study. Finally, the model was used is to predict the Saudi's imports from Bananas during future period 2020 – 2029.

DOI

10.21608/meae.2024.257207.1258

Keywords

ARDL approach, Co-integration, unit root test, UECM

Authors

First Name

علاء أحمدأحمد

Last Name

قطب

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي - مركز البحوث الزراعية

Email

alaa_kotb2007@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Abdul Aziz

Last Name

Al Duwais

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

قسم الاقتصاد الزراعي - كلية علوم الاغذية والزراعة - جامعة الملك سعود

Email

aduwais@ksu.edu.sa

City

الرياض

Orcid

-

First Name

خالد

Last Name

الرويس

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

كلية علوم الأغذية والزراعة جامعة الملك سعود

Email

knahar@ksu.edu.sa

City

الرياض

Orcid

-

First Name

Mahmud

Last Name

Alderiny

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

قسم الاحصاء -كلية العلوم- جامعة الملك سعود

Email

malderiny@ksu.edu.sa

City

الرياض

Orcid

-

First Name

Sharaf eldin Bakri

Last Name

Alaagib

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Office of Food Security Studies and Research, Vice rectorate for Graduate Students and Scientific Research- King Saud University

Email

salaagib@ksu.edu.sa

City

الرياض

Orcid

-

First Name

Walaa

Last Name

Mahfouz

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Technical projects Manager & System Analysis at King Saud University

Email

wmahfouz@ksu.edu.sa

City

الرياض

Orcid

-

Volume

34

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

46401

Issue Date

2024-03-01

Receive Date

2023-12-12

Publish Date

2024-03-01

Page Start

35

Page End

50

Print ISSN

1110-6832

Online ISSN

2735-4040

Link

https://meae.journals.ekb.eg/article_343992.html

Detail API

https://meae.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=343992

Order

343,992

Type

أبحاث علمیة متخصصة فی الاقتصاد الزراعی

Type Code

1,466

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة المصرية للاقتصاد الزراعي

Publication Link

https://meae.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Study and analysis of the Saudi demand for imported Bananas fruit. Using the autoregressive and distributed Lag ARDL methodology

Details

Type

Article

Created At

26 Dec 2024