373336

Hybrid Model "ARIMA -ANN" Using for forecasting Stock Index EGX30

Article

Last updated: 29 Mar 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

-

Abstract

This research aims to test the efficiency of Hybrid model ARIMA-ANN in forecasting by Stock market Index EGX30 since 3/1/2024to10/1/2024 In this research discussion  three models which are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) , Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and  the Hybrid model (ARIMA-ANN) , while ARIMA(0,1,1) has been used to estimate the linear Part of Model ,then Estimating the Non- linear Part of Model by the difference between Actual data and Estimated data of series, so the model of ANN (2,5,1) has been used to estimate the non-linear part of  the model and by collecting the two Parts for getting finally the hybrid model for forecasting Processing , After comparing three models and based on standard group such as Mean Square Error (MSE) , Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ,We achieved that " the Hybrid model (ARIMA-ANN) was the best model in forecasting by stock index EGX30 and it is better than ARIMA (0,1,1) and ANN (2,5,1) which did singularly ,that is because Hybrid Model has the minimum accurately  values of forecasting standards .

DOI

10.21608/caf.2024.373336

Keywords

Forecasting, Stock Index EGX30, hybrid model, ARIMA, ANN

Authors

First Name

Mohamed Samy Helmy Elsayed

Last Name

Elmalky

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Assistant Lecturer at Statistics, Mathematics and Insurance Department _ Faculty of Commerce _Tanta University

Email

mohamed_elmalky@commerce.tanta.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

44

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

49747

Issue Date

2024-06-01

Receive Date

2024-05-12

Publish Date

2024-08-01

Page Start

166

Page End

189

Print ISSN

1110-4716

Online ISSN

2682-4825

Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/article_373336.html

Detail API

http://journals.ekb.eg?_action=service&article_code=373336

Order

373,336

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

التجارة والتمويل

Publication Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Hybrid Model "ARIMA -ANN" Using for forecasting Stock Index EGX30

Details

Type

Article

Created At

25 Dec 2024