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351771

Statistical Analysis of Internal Migration in Egypt Using Markov Chains.

Article

Last updated: 25 Dec 2024

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Abstract

This paper aims to analyze internal migration in Egypt using Markov Chain method to predict the numbers of migrants for each region of Egypt for the coming periods. This study aims to find the matrix of transition probabilities that shows the probabilities of migrants moving between the regions, and to find the mean first passage time and the mean recurrence time. The states of the Markov chain model are Cairo region, Alexandria region, Delta region, Canal region, North Upper Egypt region, Central Upper Egypt region, and Southern Upper Egypt region these states are communicated to each other and irreducible. The results of the analysis; show that the Cairo region is the only region that attracts migrants, whether male or female, while the rest of the regions are regions that expel people, and the rate of expulsion varies in each of them. Moreover, it is found that the North Upper Egypt region is the most region that expells the migrants, especially to Cairo region, and it is also the least region that retains migrants, whether male or female. We conclude from the forecasting process that the percentage of migrants, whether male or female, for the Cairo region will increase, and the percentage of migrants for the rest of the regions of the Republic will decrease.

DOI

10.21608/caf.2024.351771

Keywords

Markov chain, Steady state, Internal Migration, transition probability matrix, the equilibrium matrix, initial probability, stationary probability

Authors

First Name

Asmaa

Last Name

Antar

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of Commerce, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

asmaa.antar89@gmail.com

City

محافظة الشرقيه

Orcid

-

First Name

Mervat M

Last Name

Elgohary

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of Commerce, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

mervatelgohary@gmail.com

City

Cairo

Orcid

-

First Name

Amira Abd

Last Name

Elghany

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of Commerce, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

amira.elalawey@yahoo.com

City

المنصورة

Orcid

-

Volume

44

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

47083

Issue Date

2024-03-01

Receive Date

2024-01-08

Publish Date

2024-03-01

Page Start

360

Page End

379

Print ISSN

1110-4716

Online ISSN

2682-4825

Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/article_351771.html

Detail API

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=351771

Order

351,771

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

التجارة والتمويل

Publication Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Statistical Analysis of Internal Migration in Egypt Using Markov Chains.

Details

Type

Article

Created At

25 Dec 2024